Iranian Poll: President Ahmadinejad would be reelected - Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

Iranian politics has always been difficult to forecast and ever since the Islamic Revolution political forces have been working over time to discard Islamic gains and frustrate the Islamic efforts. With just over a week to go in Iran until Election Day, June 12, many political experts maintain that political change in Tehran is unlikely. Some powerful forces in Iranian politics are supporting president Ahmadinejad and others are even unwilling to see him lose in the face of the US ultimatums to Iran.  

Known in the western media as “firebrand”, Iranian president is also the true hero of the entire Muslim world, not just of Middle East. His bold stand against US arrogance and unilateralism has endeared him to the world at large, not just the Islamic world deprived of a genuine Muslim leader to guide them. Opinion polls this month have put him more than 36 points ahead of his nearest rival, independent reformist and former prime minister Mir Hussain Mousavi.

Presidents can run for two consecutive four-year terms before they must step down. They can run again at a later date and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is seeking reelection for the second term. On May 11, the supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei implied that Ahmadinejad had his backing too, although he indirectly criticised him as well. With more than 60 percent of Iranians born after their nation's Islamic revolution in 1979, the under-30 vote will be crucial in next week's election in which hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is being challenged by three fiercely critical rivals:  Mirhossein Mousavi, prime minister during the 1980-88 war with Iraq, former parliament speaker Mehdi Karoubi and former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaie. All three advocate a less abrasive foreign policy, while the leading presidential challenger, Mir Hussein Mousavi, just appears to be gaining a head of steam among them.

I

Ahmadinejad, 53, grabbed 62 percent of the vote in the 2005, upsetting widespread predictions of victory for the seasoned former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Mahmoud swept to power with the backing of Iran's devout poor, especially those in rural areas, who felt neglected by past governments and liked his promise to put oil wealth on the table of every family in a nation of over 70 million people. Since he took power, prices of food, fuel and other basics, as a global phenomenon,  have soared.. He has has pursued unorthodox economic policies such as trying to curb prices while setting interest rates well below inflation, now less than 18 percent.

After the 1979 revolution, Ahmadinejad joined the elite Revolutionary Guard.Born a blacksmith's son in the farming village of Aradan, 100 km southeast of Tehran, his family moved to the capital in his early childhood. He studied engineering and has alternated between teaching and administrative posts. Ahmadinejad is a small man who always wears the same crumpled suit, but wherever he goes he is the centre of media attention, repeatedly stealing the limelight from his heavyweight peers among world leaders. It would not be an exaggeration to say that he is the most influential person in the Muslim world at present. He declined the use of a presidential plane, drives an old car, takes a home-made lunch to the office with him and lives in a humble flat in Tehran. These populist habits and his rural, laboring background - he is from a family of blacksmiths - have endeared him to Iran's working classes whilst his conservatism ensures the support of those with a fundamentalist agenda.

Thanks to incumbent president, Iran is nearing a nuclear power now. Iran’s nuclear program will re-shape the balance of power in the Middle East Ahmadinejad's words are backed by deeds, something which simultaneously alarms the US-Israeli axis and inspires the Muslim world. The increasingly realistic prospect of Iran’s nuclear capability and Sajil missiles with a 2,000 kilometre range are now admired by Iranians.  Iran's burgeoning military capacity has continued to develop despite threats from the West, largely due to Ahmadinejad's ability to prolong negotiations without actually conceding anything.

II

President Ahmadinejad has the support of some of Iran’s most powerful institutions, including the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guards Corps, and the Basij Militiaa paramilitary organization that acts as an enforcer of Islamic orthodoxy and responsible for  Ahmadinejad’s rise to power. These key pillars of support for the Islamic Republic have sent signals that they will go to great lengths to prevent the need for ultra-conservative forces, represented by Ahmadinejad, to cede power to a moderate like Mousavi. Mousavi has attracted exuberant crowds at recent rallies and has exploited Ahmadinejad’s propensity to make bombastic statements, such as his repeated denials of the Holocaust, to cast doubts on the incumbent’s competence.

Earlier, an important competitor former president Aliakbar Hashemi Rafsanjani quit contest, leaving Ahmadinejad unchanged. Rafsanjani has been down in recent years, but his recent actions on the eve of the poll indicated that he was gearing up for one more comeback, having positioned himself as the political figure best able to foil President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s neo-conservative faction. Since the presidential election, Rafsanjani has struggled to secure greater powers for the institution that he controls. In particular, he has waged a long fight to gain substantive oversight authority over the executive branch of government. In other words, he has sought to fashion himself as Ahmadinejad’s ideological commissar, possessing veto power over political, economic and social policy. Not surprisingly, the president and his men have fiercely resisted Rafsanjani’s efforts. And so far Ayatollah Khamenei has sided with Ahmadinejad. While Rafsanjani’s campaign hadn’t secured for him the oversight authority that he desires, it does stand to be potentially beneficial for him. It has planted in the minds of many Iranians that he shouldn’t be blamed for Iran’s recent economic nosedive, and thus it keeps him in position for a possible return to power should Ahmadinejad continue to stumble in the domestic arena, and Iran’s economy continues to deteriorate. His exit form the poll scenario has benefited the incumbent president.  

Ahmadinejad often denounces Western "hegemony" as well as the U.N. and U..S. sanctions that have raised trade costs and deterred Western investment in Iran's oil and gas sector. During his term, the U.N. Security Council has imposed three sets of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme. Ahmadinejad's moderate rivals say his fiery anti-Western talk has helped isolate Iran diplomatically. Iran's human rights record is undeniably poor and rightly condemned. However, due to the complicated power structure in Iran - which is dominated by the Islamic Revolution's Supreme National Security Council, Ahmadinejad cannot be held solely accountable for this.

III

US and its allies especially Israel are keen to see the end of Mahmoud and support any one who would defeat him. When it became clear that reformists lacked the political heft to keep the Basij Militia and Revolutionary Guards on the sidelines of the presidential race, they developed a new strategy designed to neutralize military meddling in the campaign. While it may be too late to sway the outcome of the 2009 vote, the changes being pursued by the reformists could permanently alter the rules of the political game that govern subsequent elections. By trying to divide the militia’s loyalties, the moderate-reformists are hoping to mitigate its ability to influence elections. Mousavi’s campaign is now attempting to co-opt the militia.

The supreme leader ultimately calls the shots in Iran, where the president can only influence policy, not decide it. The incumbent is basking in support from Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has called on Iranians to vote for an anti-Western candidate. However, considering the campaign trends now, president Ahmadinejad is in a comfortable position now and his reelection is a foregone conclusion even before the ballot is cast on 12 June. There is no signal of any anti--incumbency factor in the poll as the USA and Israel are considered to be serious threats to Islamic Iran. Majority of Iranians are with the present regime and it is too late for them to make any change of mind now, even if an external attempt is made. Once reelected, Ahmadinejad would strive for good relationship with the USA by meeitng him for open talks on issues confusing the world at large.     

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Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

Independent Researcher in World Affairs, The only Indian to have gone through entire India, a fraud and terror nation,
South Asia.