Parliamentary Poll 2009 in Lebanon -

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Even as Iranian-backed Hezbollah and its allies are looking to defeat Lebanon's ruling U.S.-backed coalition in a tightly contested general election, people in Lebanon have voted on June 07 in a parliamentary election that pits the ruling Western-backed coalition 14 March alliance, which has a small majority in parliament, against its rivals a Hezbollah-led bloc supported by Syria and Iran. Some three million people are eligible to cast ballots. Western analysts say the result could depend on which Christian politicians are elected in a few key constituencies. Competition is particularly fierce in Christian constituencies, with the Christian vote split evenly. Lebanon’s Christian community enjoying equal representations in government and jobs in the country is accordingly split between the two camps.

Even though the voting process itself is expected to be generally fair, some believe unfair tactics are being applied ahead of the election, with newspapers reporting that the major parties were spending hundreds of millions of dollars to buy votes and fly Lebanese home to vote. The 128-seat chamber is divided equally between Muslim and Christian communities, giving each side 64 seats (even though the proportion of Christians in the overall population has declined since the system was put in place, and is now at an estimated 35-40%). The system gives Sunni Muslims 27 seats and Shia' Muslims the same number. The Druze gets eight seats and Alawites two. On the Christian side, 34 seats are reserved for Maronites, 14 for Greek Orthodox, eight for Catholics, six for Armenians and two for other Christian minorities. MPs are elected for four-year terms in 26 multi-seat constituencies. Lebanese men and women above 21 years of age have the right to vote, whether they are resident in Lebanon or not.

Under Lebanon’s power-sharing political system, seats in 128-member parliament are split equally between Christians and Muslims, with further sub-divisions for various sects. Lebanese parliament is 128-seat, divided along sectarian and communal lines - 64 for Muslims and 64 for Christians. Main factions are - 14 March Coalition: Future movement; Progressive Socialist Party; Christian Lebanese Forces; Christian Phalangist party and - 8 March Coalition: Hezbollah; Amal movement headed by the parliamentary Speaker Nabih Birri; Free Patriotic Movement of Gen Michel Aoun. Ruling 14 March Coalition faces a strong challenge from the Hezbollah-led opposition.

The "March 14" majority coalition, led by Sunni politician Saad al-Hariri, has enjoyed firm backing from the USA and other countries including Saudi Arabia. The current majority in parliament was swept to power in 2005, following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in a car bombing in Beirut. The bombing forced Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon after a 29-year presence amid accusations of Syrian involvement in the attack. The government in Damascus has strongly denied the claims. The alliance struggled to govern in the face of a paralyzing and sometimes violent power struggle with Hezbollah and its allies. It opposes the influence of Syria which dominated Lebanon until 2005. But subsequently, a long political stand-off between the new 14 March ruling coalition and the pro-Syrian opposition over the election of a new president culminated in violent clashes across the country in May 2008. After a long series of unsuccessful talks and outbreaks of violence, the rival parties held reconciliation talks in the Qatari capital, Doha , which resulted in the formation of a national unity government, with the opposition getting 11 out of 27 ministerial posts.

The Lebanese election is a tight contest between coalitions at odds over issues including the fate of Hezbollah's powerful guerrilla army and relations with neighboring Syria, which dominated Lebanon until 2005. Much of the election campaigning has focused on Hezbollah's guerrilla wing, which is stronger than the army. Opponents say Hezbollah's weapons undermine the state, while the group and its allies see them as crucial to defending Lebanon against Israel. Tensions in Lebanon have mostly been kept in check by leaders whose rivalries pushed the country to the brink of civil war last year. A thaw in ties between Saudi Arabia and Syria has also helped maintain stability in Lebanon in recent months.

A tense run-up to elections has been stirred up by a report in Der Spiegel which linked the 2005 assassination of anti-Syrian figurehead Rafik Hariri to Hezbollah. Moscow supported the inquiry as long as its work was "professional, unbiased and not politicized". On the preceding leg of his tour, Lavrov held talks with the Palestinian militant group leader-in-exile in Damascus, Khaled Meshal. Fascist Israel that killed thousands of innocent Palestinians in Palestine said it was "deeply disappointed" by the visit to a leader it describes as a "terrorist", but Lavrov praised a new level of "realism... and responsibility" in the Hamas leadership.

Former US President Jimmy Carter, who heads a team of international observers, said Lebanese parties - and their foreign backers - should accept the result of the vote. Russia has said the international community must recognize the result of Lebanon’s general election irrespective of who wins a majority. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke after holding talks in Beirut 25 May with senior Lebanese leaders. His visit comes on the heels of US Vice President Joe Biden, who linked future US aid to Lebanon to the poll outcome. Biden warned against voting for "spoilers of peace", a veiled reference to militant political party Hezbollah. Lavrov said it is important that the results of these elections are recognized not only by Lebanese society but also everyone who is interested in the continued and natural development of Lebanon as a state, hence, the international community. During his visit he held meetings with President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.

Lebanon is a country in Western Asia, on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea. It is bordered by Syria to the north and east, and Israel to the south.. Lebanon established a unique political system in 1942, known as confessionalism, based on a community-based power-sharing mechanism. This system is intended to ensure that sectarian conflict is kept at bay and attempts to fairly represent the demographic distribution of the 18 recognized religious groups in the governing body.  One of the most complex and divided countries in the region, Lebanon has been on the fringes, and at times at the heart, of the Middle East conflict surrounding the creation of Israel. Since a resurgence of hostilities in 2006, when Israel launched a major military campaign against the Lebanon-based Shia’ Muslim armed group Hezbollah, the country has struggled to regain the relative stability it enjoyed after the 1975-1990 civil war. One month long 2006 Lebanon War, between the Israeli military and Hezbollah caused significant civilian death and serious damage to Lebanon's civil infrastructure.. The conflict lasted from 12 July 2006 until a cessation of hostilities call, by the UN Security Council, went into effect on 14 August 2006. After some turbulent political times, Lebanon was again able to revive and destabilize its economy and government.

The 7 June parliamentary election is watched keenly by the world, as the survival of the Saudi-backed anti-Syrian coalition that currently holds a narrow majority in parliament will be decided by the poll verdict. The backbone of the current parliamentary majority, the 14 March coalition, is the mainly-Sunni Future movement (Mustaqbal in Arabic) headed by Saad Hariri, son of the assassinated former PM Rafik Hariri. The outcome is likely to be a broad-based coalition government.. Hezbollah is fielding only 11 candidates, though it is a powerful member of the broader opposition coalition, which includes the maverick Christian leader Michel Aoun, and the mainstream Shia’ movement Amal. As such, Western fears of a Hezbollah "takeover" do not really fit the bill. The USA, which lists Hezbollah as a terrorist group, has linked future aid to Lebanon to the shape and policies of the government that replaces the current national unity cabinet. Hezbollah is part of the present government.

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Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

Independent Researcher in World Affairs, The only Indian to have gone through entire India, a fraud and terror nation,
South Asia.