President Ahmadinejad re-elected in Iran

Iranian incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been reelected. Iranians have won another battle against neo-imperialism and unilateralism and upheld the challenge posed by their leader against war threats from the global terrorist states (GTS). The votes counted so far in the Iranian presidential poll show that Iran's maverick Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a known United States-basher, has been re-elected in the 10th presidential election in the world's fifth biggest oil exporter, with over 38 million counted out of more than 80 percent turnout of Iran's 46.2 million eligible voters. The turnout was estimated at a record of between 75 and 82 percent of the 46.2 million electorate. The election underscored deep divisions in Iran after four years under Ahmadinejad, who enjoyed passionate support in rural towns and villages, while in the big cities young men and women threw their weight behind Mousavi. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also voted. Some powerful forces in Iranian politics are supporting president Ahmadinejad and others are even unwilling to see him lose in the face of the US ultimatums to Iran.  

Ahmadinejad has gained a land slide victory with 64.31% of the votes after 94% of the ballots have been counted, while “reformist” pro-western candidate, former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousave has gained 32.57%.  Former Revolutionary Guards chief Mohsen Rezaei and former Parliament Speaker Mehdi Karroubi have gained 1.66% and 0.83%. Ahmadinejad's unbeatable lead and final victory is doubtless due to the great distance between the incumbent president and his rivals. According to Iran's election law, any candidate who gains over 50 percent of the vote wins the presidential election. If no winner emerges in the first round, the top two candidates will contest in a run-off one week later. Passions ran high during the campaign, with Ahmadinejad and his challengers hurling insults at each other in acrimonious live television debates while their supporters staged massive carnival-like street rallies.  

The three-week election campaign was marked by mudslinging, with Ahmadinejad accusing his rivals of corruption. Mousavi hit back by saying the conservative president had humiliated Iranians with his "extremist" foreign policy. The economy was a key election issue, with the country battling inflation at 24 percent, rising unemployment and plunging income from crude oil exports. Ahmadinejad's rivals have accused him of badly mismanaging the economy and tarnishing Iran's image, further isolating the country from the West.  Ahmadinejad accused his opponents of trying to undermine the Islamic Republic through a policy of detente with the West.  West supported opposition could be inspired to make the situation "potentially explosive," with a considerable risk of unrest. There had been a surge of interest in Iran's presidential election, with unprecedented live television debates between the candidates and rallies attended by thousands. Nobody among the opposition and in the anti-Islamic west had expected the margin of Ahmadinejad's apparent victory to be so big and they argued for a reduced majority for Ahmadinejad, but his popularity has never been a problem. The level of the incumbent's support, nearly twice as many votes as former Prime Minister Mirhossein Mousavi with most ballots counted confounded widespread expectations that the race would at least go to a second round.  But Ahmadinejad, a self-proclaimed fundamentalist seeking a return to the moral "purity" of the early years of the Islamic revolution is back as president of Iran for another 4 year term. 

II

Although the Western media launched a smear campaign against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and asked the Iranian people to reject the incumbent president, the poll outcome has called the western bluff. The popularity of President Ahmadinejad has never slid downward. A recent nationwide opinion poll in May 2009 showed that Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is leading Iran's presidential election poll by big margin The opinion poll conducted in Tehran as well as 29 other provincial capitals and 32 important cities on May 3-4, indicates that 58.6 percent will cast their ballots in favor of Ahmadinejad, while some 21.9 percent will vote for Mousavi. The Iranian president's popularity has grown among the electorate, while support for his rival, Mir-Hossein Mousavi has remained unchanged. Ahmadinejad, portraying himself as a man of the people, pledged to stamp out corruption and help the poor while his rivals accused him of mismanaging the economy of one of the world's top oil producers and damaging the nation's international standing.

President Ahmadinejad, 53, won power four years agoon 2005 June 25,  vowing to revive the values of the 1979 Islamic revolution. Earlier, the former Tehran mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad swept to a shock victory in Iran's presidential election, spelling an end to years of hard-fought social reform and placing the Islamic republic on a collision course with the West. Mahmoud swept to power with the backing of Iran 's devout poor, especially those in rural areas, who felt neglected by past governments and liked his promise to put oil wealth on the table of every family in a nation of over 70 million people. Since he took power, prices of food, fuel and other basics, as a global phenomenon, have soared. He has pursued unorthodox economic policies such as trying to curb prices while setting interest rates well below inflation, now less than 18 percent. The opposition tries to manipulate this aspect in the campaign.

After the 1979 revolution, Ahmadinejad joined the elite Revolutionary Guard. Born a blacksmith's son in the farming village of Aradan , 100 km southeast of Tehran , his family moved to the capital in his early childhood. He studied engineering and has alternated between teaching and administrative posts. Ahmadinejad is a simple man who lives a modest life and always wears the same crumpled suit, but wherever he goes he is the centre of media attention, repeatedly stealing the limelight from his heavyweight peers among world leaders. He declined the use of a presidential plane, drives an old car, takes a home-made lunch to the office with him and lives in a humble flat in Tehran. These populist habits and his rural, laboring background - he is from a family of blacksmiths - have endeared him to Iran’s working classes whilst his conservatism ensures the support of those with a fundamentalist agenda. It would not be an exaggeration to say that he is the most influential person in the Muslim world at present.

In the USA, home to the largest Iranian expatriate population, opponents of the regime had condemned the election as a "sham." The vote has nevertheless highlighted a call for change after 30 years of clerical rule in a country where 60 percent of the population was born after the revolution. Even if 67-year-old Mousavi had won, it was doubtful there would be any major shift in Iran's nuclear and foreign policy as all decisions on matters of state rest with all-powerful supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. U.S. President Barack Obama, who has called for dialogue with Iran after three decades of severed ties.

USA and its allies especially Israel are keen to see the end of Mahmoud and support any one who would defeat him. Thanks to incumbent president, Iran is nearing a nuclear power now. Iran’s nuclear program will re-shape the balance of power in the Middle East Ahmadinejad's words are backed by deeds, something which simultaneously alarms the US-Israeli axis and inspires the Muslim world. The increasingly realistic prospect of Iran’s nuclear capability and Sajil missiles with a 2,000 kilometre range are now admired by Iranians. Iran’s burgeoning military capacity has continued to develop despite threats from the West, largely due to Ahmadinejad's ability to prolong negotiations without actually conceding anything. President Ahmadinejad has the support of some of Iran’s most powerful institutions, including the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guards Corps, and the Basij Militiaa paramilitary organization that acts as an enforcer of Islamic orthodoxy and responsible for  Ahmadinejad’s rise to power. These key pillars of support for the Islamic Republic have sent signals that they will go to great lengths to prevent the need for ultra-conservative forces, represented by Ahmadinejad, to cede power to a moderate like Mousavi. Mousavi has attracted exuberant crowds at recent rallies and has exploited Ahmadinejad’s propensity to make bombastic statements, such as his repeated denials of the Holocaust, to cast doubts on the incumbent’s competence.

Not many have the will and capacity to oppose neo-imperialism toady. Known in the western media as “firebrand”, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is also the true hero of the entire Muslim world, not just of Middle East. His bold stand against US arrogance and unilateralism has endeared him to the world at large, not just the Islamic world deprived of a genuine Muslim leader to guide them. Ahmadinejad often denounces Western "hegemony" as well as the U.N. and U.S. sanctions that have raised trade costs and deterred Western investment in Iran 's oil and gas sector. During his term, the U.N. Security Council has imposed three sets of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program. Few Iranians have favorable opinions of the United States, a view that has not changed since the election of an American president who has expressed a willingness to talk to Tehran, a rare poll of Iranian citizens showed 10 June.

III

Iran is committed to Islam. The more sensitive an issue is, the greater is the need for the major centers of power to reach consensus. That's why the Islamic Republic usually has had a tough time making the tough decisions about Islamic state, and it often has done so when there is unbearable pressure on it. Ahmadinejad draws support mainly from the urban poor and rural areas, while his rivals have support among the middle classes and the educated urban population. A bitterly fought campaign generated strong interest around the world and intense excitement inside Iran. It revealed deep divisions among establishment figures between those backing Ahmadinejad and those pushing for social and political change.

Economy and security are the prime focus of the governement now. Khamenei is the one who determines the general direction and the strategic objectives of the entire system and does so after he consults with the main centers of power. On the nuclear question, it's very clear that the ultimate decision maker is Ayatollah Khamenei. While the Supreme Leader is the ultimate source of authority, or the "decider," the president of Iran is the second most powerful person in the country and the public face of the Islamic RepublicThese elections cannot be discounted as farce or meaningless." The system of the governance in the Islamic Republic of Iran is arguably unique in the world.  It is based on an Islamic component and a republican component. The constitution was written with the explicit objective of ensuring that the Islamic component of the system, or the unelected part, is superior to and can dominate the republican component, or the elected part. This does not mean that the Supreme Leader, as the country's most powerful figure, is the only person running the country and can ignore other powerful forces.

Iran has been at loggerheads with the West as Doctor Ahmadinejad delivered a succession of fiery tirades against Israel, repeatedly questioned the Holocaust and vowed to press on with nuclear work, denying allegations Tehran was seeking the atomic bomb. By promoting anti-Ahmadinajidism, Western capitals had hoped a victory for Mousavi could help ease tensions with the West, which is concerned about Tehran's nuclear plans, and improve chances of engagement with Obama, who has talked about a new start in ties with Tehran. Now they will have to find a way to deal with Ahmadinejad's government if they want to make progress in defusing the dispute over Iran's nuclear program.

Ahmadinejad has expanded the nuclear program, rejecting Western charges that it is aimed at bomb-making, and stirred international outrage by denying the Holocaust and calling for Israel to be wiped from the map. Though Mousavi, 67, rejects Western demands that Iran halt uranium enrichment but he would have brought a different approach to Iran-U.S. ties and talks on the nuclear issue. Ultimately, however, nuclear and foreign policies are determined by the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Sometimes tactical changes or even the tone of what you say can create a new environment. For example, Khatami was able to have a gentle and moderate approach to international politics. He talked about dialogue amongst civilizations. As a result of that approach, he created a friendlier environment in which Iran and the West began to negotiate. President Ahmadinejad has opted for a completely different and confrontational tone in his diplomacy.

Many political experts maintain that political change in Tehran is unlikely and Ahmadinejad would return albeit with reduced majority. Now that the incumbent president, despised by the west and israel, has won the poll again the west would circulate new theories. Those in the West and elsewhere who dismissed Iranian elections as an exercise in futility and as utterly irrelevant would have difficulty explaining the profoundly different policies pursued by Khatami and Ahmadinejad. Mohammed Khatami's presidency with that of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and says while Khatami agreed with the suspension of uranium enrichment activities in 2003, Ahmadinejad reversed that policy. President Ahmadinejad made a different kind of argument and convinced the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader to restart enrichment activities. In most presidential systems, when the president changes so does policy.Ayatollah Khamenei-who ultimately decides the key issues related to the country's security and foreign policies. The president of Iran does not in any way control the military and security forces or appoint their commanders and chiefs. Nor are these commanders and chiefs accountable to him. In other words, the central question of security or war and peace is unambiguously in the domain of the Supreme Leader.

Barack Obama expressed optimism about Iran's presidential election, saying it would offer a "possibility of change" for the U.S.-Iran relations. The United States has had no ties with Iran since shortly after the revolution but Obama said in Washington the USA had "tried to send a clear message that we think there is the possibility of change" in relations. President Obama's speech in Cairo, the fact that he started a much needed dialogue with the Islamic world will have its own life and momentum. In the coming months and years, that new environment his historic speech has created could result in major policy changes, both in terms of what America does and what Middle Eastern countries decide to do. It's the same thing in Iran. Iran will continue its Palestine objective more vigorously.

A victory for Ahmadinejad would now mean no significant change in Iran's foreign and domestic policy unless further positive signals emanate from Washington adequately supported by actions. Ahmadinejad's re-election is likely to disappoint Western powers aiming to convince Iran to halt work they suspect is aimed at making bombs, and could further complicate efforts by U.S. President Barack Obama to reach out to Tehran. Iran does not want to settle its nuclear issue on western terms. 

Israel continues its illegal settlements in Palestine while demolishing the houses of the Palestinians. While the debate about Israeli settlements goes on there is no let-up in the demolition of Palestinian homes by the Israeli army. Just last week 18 shepherd family homes in the northern Jordan Valley were destroyed, displacing 130 people. They got eviction notices four days earlier. Some of the families had been living there since at least the 1950s.  Majority of Iranians are with the present regime and it is too late for them to make any change of mind now, even if an external attempt is made. 

Once reelected, Ahmadinejad would now strive for good relationship with the USA by meeting President Obama among all world leaders for open talks on crucial issues like Israel, Palestine, nuclearism, disarmament and de-nuclearization etc., that have been hitherto confusing the world at large.    

  -----------------------

Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

Independent Researcher in World Affairs, The only Indian to have gone through entire India, a fraud and terror nation,
South Asia.