Climate notes before the Copenhagen summit

 Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

An impending climatic devestation stares at humanity and the island nations are shivering... International community has just begun taking note of this. This week saw two significant climate summits - a special session for heads of government at the UN in New York, and a G20 meeting in Pittsburgh that unlocked new proposals on financing poorer countries' transitions to a low-carbon economy. US President Barack Obama spoke at the UN's one-day climate change summit in New York and acknowledged that the US had been slow to act, but promised a "new era" of promoting clean energy and reducing carbon pollution. Obama says USA will henceforth act in a spirit of renewed multilateralism. President Obama has already announced a target of returning to 1990 levels of greenhouse emissions by 2020, but critics say Washington is moving too slowly on legislation which does not go far enough.

In his address, the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said the climate change summit in New York has given fresh impetus to efforts to tackle global warming. "Climate change is a defining challenge of our time”.  He says the momentum has shifted in favour of reaching a deal at December's crucial climate meeting in Copenhagen and praised world leaders for their desire to tackle climate change. China and the US each account for about 20% of the world's greenhouse gas pollution from coal, natural gas and oil. The European Union is responsible for 14%, followed by Russia and India with 5% each.

Negotiators for the Copenhagen summit are trying to agree on a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol to limit carbon emissions and save the world from a possible early climate disaster. The summit heard that China will increase efforts to improve energy efficiency and cut its CO2 emissions. Chinese President Hu Jintao gave no details about the measures, which should mean emissions grow less quickly than the economy. Hu also pledged to "vigorously develop" renewable and nuclear energy. He restated China's position that developed nations needed to do more than developing nations to fight climate change because they were historically responsible for the problem.  Hu said his country would curb its carbon emissions per unit of Gross Domestic Product by a "notable margin" by 2020 from the 2005 level. However, the proposal is unlikely to mean an overall reduction in emissions, as China's economy is expected to continue to grow rapidly. The pledge prompted former-US vice-president and environmental activist Al Gore to praise China's leadership. USA and China are the world biggest polluters and USA seeks finance from China. 

Environmental groups argue that western nations are historically responsible for causing man-made climate change, and so must bear the brunt of any "compensation money" for the developing world - a position that is shared by governments of many poorer countries. Recently the African Union suggested that African countries alone should receive $67bn per year. There has been little to indicate that countries such as South Korea, Singapore, Kuwait or China would be willing to put sums into a pot for this kind of initiative. The proposal will now be considered by the European Council and European Parliament.

The UK has not yet committed to the 40% CO2 cuts most scientists say are needed from rich nations by 2020 to contain climate change. Britain's leaders have been promising a green economy for many years but Germany, Denmark, the USA - and now increasingly China and India - are taking a market lead. UK premier Gordon Brown told Newsweek magazine there was no second chance to undo "catastrophic damage" to the environment if "we miss the opportunity to protect the planet". Brown also warned that consumers would have to pay more for energy in the future, whether the UK opts for high or low carbon energy sources. Brown said a deal was also essential to help kick-start a global low-carbon economy as a route out of recession. As finance minister, Brown blocked many green policies, and some may question this latest initiative. But he has already taken an international lead by suggesting rich nations should pay $100bn (£62bn) a year to help poor nations with the changing climate. UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband was first to break with the political spin that it was possible to decarbonise the economy without putting up prices.

The European Commission says the EU should provide $2-15bn each year to help poor countries protect themselves against impacts of climate change. The UN estimates that poor nations will need about $100bn (£60bn) per year for climate adaptation, with much of that coming from levies on carbon trading. The commission hopes its proposal will stimulate negotiations leading up to December's UN summit in Copenhagen. One of the main stumbling blocks in the process of trying to agree a new UN climate treaty has been the reluctance of some industrialized countries, in particular the US, to pledge emission cuts big enough to placate developing countries. The IEA suggests its findings show that emissions can be cut more easily than some governments have assumed.

The economies which embrace the green revolution earliest will reap the greatest economic rewards." The Copenhagen summit in the Danish capital is not the guarantee that the world will get the global agreement, but the polluters would be forced to cut down the carbon emission level significantly. Climate talks are vital as they aim to produce a successor to the Kyoto Climate Protocol on global warming. The climate change summit in New York gave an impetus to the move. The new Japanese Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, pledged to reduce emissions by 25% by 2020 compared to the 1990 level, calling it the Hatoyama Initiative. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, a Jew, called on leaders to meet again in mid-November ahead of the crucial Copenhagen conference. This would make the G20 reiterate their mission beyond doubt. At the moment there is a huge gap between what needs to be done and what world leaders are promising to do."

Much of the debate about tackling global warming revolves around the idea of absolute cuts in emissions of carbon dioxide - but developing countries feel that this emphasis is unfair. Richer countries, meanwhile, have had the benefits of centuries of fossil fuel use, and are now demanding that growing nations stop using them with no obvious alternatives in place.

It is estimated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the global recession and a range of government policies are likely to bring the biggest annual fall in the world's carbon dioxide emissions in 40 years. The anticipated fall in emissions is larger than that seen during the recession of the early 1980s. Measures such as emissions trading have complemented the drop in emissions as economic activity has declined.

A Word

All G20 countries have pledged to maintain fiscal and monetary accommodation for as long as is required to ensure a stable recovery. Financial regulation will continue to be a key part of the leaders’ debate. The recent meeting of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors supported such moves. The coordinated and unilateral policy actions taken by these countries and others—including aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus, increased funding to the IMF, and backstopping financial systems globally—helped stop the economic freefall. While G20 leaders are likely to repeat their pledge to support the Doha round of multilateral trade talks, real movement on removing trade barriers is unlikely in the coming months, given that trade remains weak. With the U.S. current account deficit falling to US$98 billion in Q2 2009, the U.S. wants to put a focus on reducing global imbalances and promoting the sort of structural reforms that would increase domestic demand in export-focused economies like China. Should U.S. fiscal consolidation be delayed, the creditors Russia, China and Japan might not be as willing to provide financing. the U.S. and China agree that the U.S. needs to save more and China needs to consume more; but they differ on the timing of such a shift and how to bring it about.

The UN climate summit on Sept 22, 2009, sponsored by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, attempting to ease the roadblocks on the way to the December 2009 Copenhagen summit - and attended by most of G20 members -  did not get over the perpetual ambivalence on the issue. The problem is while countries agreed on long-term emissions-cutting goals, they do doubt the sincerity or ability of their counterparts to make the near and medium term sacrifices. In particular, emerging markets and developing economies are reluctant to agree to any emissions caps that might cool their growth, and European leaders have grown weary of delays in the passage of the U.S. climate change bill. However, the reduction of global emissions in 2008 from lower consumption and industrial output might bring some breathing space. Yet even if an overarching grand bargain seems hard to achieve, domestic policies are changing—even in the U.S. and China, the largest emitters. Next venue is Copenhagen for a crucial climate summit.

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Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

Specialist on State Terrorism

Independent Researcher in International Affairs, The only Indian to have gone through entire India, a fraud and terror nation in South Asia.