Mounting paranoia of our adversaries on self-imagined threats

Asif Haroon Raja

USA, India, Israel and Britain are suffering from paranoia. The US strongly feels that Al-Qaeda led by Osama, allegedly based in FATA is contemplating another 9/11 like attack on its homeland. India is also thinking on same lines. It fears another 26/11 like attack by Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) singly or aided by Al-Qaeda using Pakistan soil. Israel fears that Pakistan may not pass on nukes to any of its neighbour. UK feels that most acts of terror in Britain emanate from Pakistan. Their fears are based entirely on conjectures and flights of imagination with ulterior motives against Pakistan since so far they haven’t come out with any proof to substantiate their claims. Robert Gates has now admitted that US intelligence agencies are clueless about whereabouts of Osama. Threat of Al-Qaeda and LeT allegedly based in Pakistan are being used as sticks to keep Pakistan under pressure and to force it to do more. The world is also being conditioned about the possibility of perceived attacks so that when the drama is finally enacted at an opportune time, the world accepts their version and hold Pakistan responsible. Both have already made several contingency plans how to play up another fabricated show which should appear convincing and free of glaring loopholes of 9/11 and 26/11.

George W Bush and now Obama and his team have sounded on several occasions that 9/11 was planned and executed by Al-Qaeda from Pak-Afghan border region and another one is in pipeline from FATA. It is in anticipation to this self-perceived threat that 30,000 additional US troops are being rushed to Afghanistan to prevent recurrence of 9/11. With no end to US wool-gathering and fits of paranoia, Afghan Shura and Mullah Omar have been placed at Quetta again on assumptions and without sharing intelligence. This has been done to cover up US-UK failed operation in Helmand and implying that insurgency in Afghanistan is being supported and directed from Quetta, and that Pakistan is party to it. It is under this threat perception that Pakistan figures out prominently in newly drafted Afghan policy and US desire to step into FATA and to subject Quetta to drone attacks. Hence, troop surge is not only meant to roll back rising power of Afghan Taliban but also to be prepared to implement its contingency plans against Pakistan. These include selective forays into FATA in form of hot pursuit operations, physical intervention in FATA, taking over nuclear assets under the plea of making them safe from falling into wrong hands.

Aggressive posturing will be done to tie down part of our forces along western border in case of Indo-Pakistan conflict green-signalled by Washington. The US has succeeded in making Pakistan pullout over two divisions from eastern border with India to its western frontier with Afghanistan to fight the militants. Breaking all records of hypocrisy and deceit, the US is consistently pushing Pakistan to pullout more troops reassuring it that India pose no threat. It is ignoring non-cooperative and haughty attitude of India.   

In the aftermath of 26/11, India has adopted an aggressive posture. It has indicated its intention of reacting fiercely in case of any terrorist attack on India. Indian Army chief Gen Kapoor has hurled several threatening statements including possibility of limited nuclear war without giving any reason as to why India would wage a war without any provocation from Pakistan. Speaking the same language, Robert Gates has indicated possibility of Indo-Pak war in case of terrorist attack on India. He stated that Al-Qaeda was helping LeT in this regard to provoke a conflict.

As regards terrorism, Pakistan is worst affected and hardly a day passes without an act of terror resulting in heavy casualties of civilians. Pak Army is fighting the terrorists with full vigour and achieving pleasing results. Pakistan has also taken concrete steps to meet unjust demands of India and has put alleged accused of Mumbai attacks on trial. Al-Qaeda-Afghan Taliban and LeT have become common enemies of India and USA and the duo want Pakistan to tackle all.

It is quite apparent that both USA and India are deliberately provoking Pakistan and finding excuses to justify their intended offensive. India is deliberately putting off recommencement of composite dialogue on flimsy excuses so as to keep the option of war open. In a limited war scenario, India would aim at annexing important salients in Azad Kashmir and some sensitive areas in Punjab and Sindh closer to border. The natural allies would expect the UNSC to step in and stop the war at a time entirely favourable to the offender and preventing the defender from taking counter measures in the form of counter offensive or a nuclear strike under the plea that it would result in nuclear holocaust.

Adversaries of Pakistan wishfully hope that capture of spaces by Indian forces would have shattering impact on morale of Pakistan and its economy, would strengthen nationalist and militant forces in Pakistan and would create chaos, helplessness and despair. There will be none to bailout Pakistan. The US would then come forward under such despairing moments to give a helping hand to the drowning nation and force it to sign on document of surrender and the conditions written therein to repeat the story of Paltan Maidan in December 1971. It will be quietly denuclearised and allowed to live as a vassal state of India. In case Pakistan still shows defiance, next phase of balkanisation of Pakistan will be implemented.

The US instead of relying on Pakistan Army to sort out its mess it has created in Afghanistan; it is relying entirely on few tainted leaders and officials in Pakistan and on inept and corrupt Afghan leadership. The CIA rather than working hand-in-glove with ISI to fight and defeat terrorism, it is mistrusting ISI and trusting RAW, Mossad, RAAM and MI-6. US leaders have been so thoroughly brainwashed by self-serving India, Israel and Britain, that their vision have got impaired and their senses lulled. Their behaviour is akin to robots and they are being led by their noses towards self-destruction.

Instead of strengthening the hands of Pakistan, which has taken on the frontline duties since September 2001 and put its security at stake, it is being gradually weakened under the false hope of colonising both Afghanistan and Pakistan. This bigoted and immoral program is causing immense pain to Pakistan but is pushing US military deeper and deeper into the quagmire of Afghanistan.

Russia and China are militarily and economically too strong, Iran cannot be bent, Afghanistan cannot be conquered, North Korea has nuclear teeth and defiant leadership, India is too big to be gorged, Central Asian States are under the protective wings of two surging communist giants that have become close friends and aligned to North Korea, Iraq is uncontrollable, rich Arab states are devoid of warrior spirit and militarily not in a position to promote US regional interests. Pakistan is the only state which is nuclear, has strong and effective armed forces, has reasonable technical base and know-how, but its civilian leadership is corrupt, inept, saleable and compliant to US dictates. This grave deficiency gets nullified to some extent because of independent and assertive judiciary under chief justice Iftikhar, thoroughly well trained, motivated and professional armed forces and resilience of the people of Pakistan having complete faith in God Almighty. They know that nexus formed by USA-India-Israel-Britain-Afghanistan has woven another 1971 like international conspiracy and is collectively striving to denuclearise and fragment Pakistan. Instead of Pakistanis suffering from paranoia, ironically the evil-doers are paranoid. 

The writer is a defence and security analyst. Email: asifharoon7751@yahoo.com