Why Mubarak Hesitant to Quit?

Foreign Policy of Egypt-6

Dr. Abdul Ruff

USA always promoted pro-US puppet regimes and Egypt has been viewed as one. Mubarak came to power in 1981 and ruled the nation under Emergency Powers that have been continually renewed and expanded till date, while the USA and its allies call this as part of democracy. The entire system of authoritarianism to promote capitalist ownership as groomed by Mubarak is responsible for the country’s grinding oppression, stark social inequality and lack of credible opposition parties. The profound and protracted crisis of world capitalism is creating mass discontent in every corner of the world. The greatest fear of the ruling elite in the USA and in every other country is impact of Egypt upon western capitalism thriving on extra surplus values out of the pathos of exploited people.  Events in Egypt and elsewhere have served to dash general democratic illusions as well as the belief that the military could serve as the champion of freedom. The mass uprising in Egypt will obviously serve as a spark, radicalizing workers throughout the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere.

It appears, President Obama's Cairo speech may not have changed the US perception of Muslim world, but it has signaled a new era in Mideastern polices. Egypt has not yet changed it US policy either. As Obama views Islam differently, undeterred and without hang-ups, the USA is experimenting with a new model it is pursuing in the Middle East, a viable combination between civil government and Islam, which different countries will be able to contain to different degrees and in different ways. Obama is beginning to implement his intellectual-cultural world view as per his Cairo speech and he's starting with Egypt.

It appears US president Obama had placed two major demands on Egypt and Mubarak understood what Washington wanted and tried to accommodate it— support of the Mideast peace process, and Egyptian reforms.The Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak played the game pretending to be honest, hosted summits and mediated talks that came to naught in order to get demands for reform off his back.Possibly Mubarak thinks by superficially implementing some reforms he could stay on and therefore he still refuses to step down, while Obama is harping on immediate “transition”. The US demand for reformed stayed. On the eve of the turmoil, Mubarak had warned Israel against its fascist attacks on defenseless Palestinians. But none took his waring seriously, but the Palestinians expected some relief from Israeli aggressions.

Now Americans seek opportunity of job creations in its client states and Egypt perhaps has been sounded to offer opportunities  for American companies to expand their establishments so as to enhance chances for job creations for Americans. One does not find any mentioning of this aspect in the media. Mubarak would like to appease USA and stay on.

The dirty outside efforts to shamelessly push through their favorites in Cairo to replace Mubarak is still on.  US-Israeli terror strategists think Mubarak’s replacement would not be any more democratic or pro-Western. But they want the new regime to be anti-Islamic. Many Israeli analysts say America is confused over its Mideast policy, maybe for the first time. Some even say that Obama’s is a gamble and this sends a "very negative message. Israel tries to shed crocodile tears over US policy in Mideast. They advise Obama not to remove Mubarak since shaking off Mubarak in rather a cruel way should raise questions in other Arab countries who dwell "under the American umbrella". The tough message, they reason,  should resonate with the Saudis, Persian Gulf states, Morocco and other pro-Western dictatorships "who see the ease with which they can be dropped.

Amid rumors that Mubarak  had already fled the country and widespread media reports that Mubarak would announce his resignation, this development is an amusing anti-climax. Indian TV chennlels had , posibily as a usual mishcvief, that  Mubarak has resigned and then said he has transferred power to the military, etc. maybe India enjoys the deaths and turmoil in a Muslims nation.  But the Egyptian leader appeared on national television to declare that he would “remain adamant to shoulder my responsibility, safeguarding the interests of Egyptians” until elections are held and his term expires next September. In simple language, Mubarak says he would be the president for another 7 months at least. Mubarak’s absence from the meeting of “supreme council” convened by the military on 10 February convinced many that his departure. The “supreme council” is a body that had met previously only during the wars with Israel in 1967 and 1973. The urgency of the meeting speculated the exit of Mubarak, but the melting suggested to save the regime and defeat the revolution.  

The Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak is still reluctant to step down.  He has promised to complete his mission, his obligation till September, to pursue “national dialogue” and to repeal police state measures in the country’s constitution.  He has promised delegating some of his presidential duties to his hand-picked vice president, the longtime chief of the regime’s secret police, Omar Suleiman. Suleiman, a key ally of the US CIA, then delivered an even more ominous speech. He demanded that Egypt’s millions of demonstrators and strikers “go back home” and “go back to work.” He gathered strength to criticize the Americans  for  creating problems in Egypt by asking Mubarak to step down. Mubarak earlier made an attempt to appeal to nationalist sentiments by vowing not to bow to “foreign diktats” of USA or UK or any other power.  US president Obama promised Egyptians that America would continue to do everything that “we can to support an orderly and genuine transition to democracy.” However, USA appears to be keen to find a means of salvaging the US-backed military dictatorship in Egypt and defeating the uprising of the masses. This double-speak has confused the demonstrators. 

Military has played a crude anti-people role in recent days. Since demonstrations and strikes erupted against the Mubarak regime on January 25, the Egyptian military has arrested, tortured and “disappeared” thousands, exploding the claim advanced by the West and military that Egypt’s army is a neutral arbiter in the crisis. According to Human Rights Watch, at least 302 Egyptians have been killed in the protests, the vast majority of these at the hands of the security forces, pro-government thugs and the military. The number of the disappeared—those arrested by the military with no record or official acknowledgement of their fate—runs into possibly thousands. The claim advanced even by both Mohammed ElBaradei and the Muslim Brotherhood that the military can be relied upon to protect the population from the hated state security forces has been proved false.  The Mubarak regime has arrested hundreds of “suspected strikers” reminding the US track of “suspected terrorists”.  And they are inhumanly tortured and murdered.

Human rights organizations say that the military did not generally detain the pro-Mubarak fighters. the military allowed pro-Mubarak thugs, many of them plainclothes security forces, to attack demonstrators over the space of three days with Molotov cocktails, iron rods, vehicles, horses, and even guns. An unknown number were killed and scores were injured in these assaults.

Now Mubarak talks about stability of Egypt without any credible opposition.Supported by the USA and UK, Mubarak weakened the opposition and even marginalized its influence over the masses. The important opposition Muslim Brotherhood has been terrorized to operate as underground organization. . Having relied on Mubarak and his cohorts for more than three decades, USA does not have a natural popular replacement, but the one USA projected Mohd ElBaradei  as a ready-made substitute is not a mass leader.

Israelis find fault with Mideast peace process initiated by President Obama and even say that the USA is facing the consequences of its efforts on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Kissinger once said that all strategic alliances are conditional, as in both "temporary" and with actual "conditions." American conditions, at least in principle, are regime change in favor US interests n the region, democracy and rights. However last almost one decade USA and its NATO terror syndicate nations have deliberately violated all norms of democracy in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan and genocides have become equivalent to democracy.

Stability is the talk of time and many notorious things have been done against people and humanity at large in stability's sake. The final decision of H. Mubarak to hold on to the Egyptian presidency, terribly confronted with a revolutionary challenge from below, seems to be the outcome of intense discussions within both Egypt’s own ruling establishment of corrupt capitalists and military commanders and within the corridors of power in Washington and other imperialist capitals.