A Possible Indo-Pakistan Nuclear War?

-Col DR. ABDUL RUFF

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Even a brief nuclear war can have devastating impact on the globe, killing a good portion of humanity and leaving many more physically crippled. Yet, the nuclear terrorists and fanatics are eager to enjoy a nuclear war live on TV. 

Many playful Indians, like the terror strategists, probably want a live nuke war on TV. Nuclear India remains a serious threat to nuclear Pakistan’s existence though New Delhi skillfully tries to create illusions of “existing” Pakistani threats. Pakistan therefore is ever ready to face any aggression from India and China has pledged support Pakistan in the event of any Indian attack.  

Of course, it was decades ago that the US dictators, disguised as great democrats born only to save the humanity, nuclear-attacked Japan- the first nuclear attack in history-  killing thousands and injuring, permanently, many more thousands of innocent Japanese. Those days the color TV relay facility was not there and the youth  had  not got opportunity to watch the nuclear war horrors live nukes on TV.

Notwithstanding all confidence building measures being adopted by Islamabad by handing over an Indian prisoner to New Delhi, Pakistan is seriously worried India will not stick to its no-first-use NFU pledge. They know India might launch a first strike against Pakistan’s counterforce assets in the event of “credible intelligence” of a potential Pakistani nuclear attack. And Islamabad has consistently believed that its declared readiness to escalate a conventional conflict to the nuclear level could effectively deter New Delhi from crossing the border or launching a sub conventional attack.

 Pakistan has an operational second-strike capability with its massive inventory of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and strategic-delivery aircraft; the projection of the naval component only enables survivability for its second-strike option. And since India tested its Agni-V long-range ballistic missile with a range of over 3100 miles in late May, Pakistan has on five occasions test-fired various variants of its Hatf missile system, which some Pakistan analysts said was part of its second-strike-capability buildup.

India declared a no-first-use (NFU) posture, saying it will use nuclear weapons only to retaliate against a nuclear, chemical or biological attack.  Islamabad, however, rejects New Delhi’s NFU as mere rhetoric and seeks to deter potential Indian aggression at all three operational levels—subconventional, conventional and nuclear. Nuclear deterrence between India and Pakistan, in place since the 1998 nuclear tests, is an unstable equation: The nuclear tripwires maintained by Pakistan are confusing in their articulations of thresholds for a nuclear first-use policy.

Former Pakistani president General Zia ul-Haq as early as 1988 said that “if India crosses the border even by an inch, its cities will be annihilated”. Pakistani successor leaders have since effectively used the threat in all conflicts between the South Asian nuclear neighbors. The cross border trade, prisoner swaps, "talks" and other confidence  building measures have not eased the real India threat panic in Pakistan. When the ND regime is overpwoered by the hawkish elements in military establishment, anything can happen, leading to devestations on both sides....  

Nuclear goods in India and Pakistan cause real problem for the South Asia region as well and the illegal occupation of Jammu Kashmir by India is the root cause of all the troubles. Many hawkish, able bodied Indian strategist keep arguing that India should go for war with neighbors to assert its importance, killing everyone who opposes Indian occuaption  to retain JK at any cost. 

Since India spends huge resources, swindled from people's welfare  needs,  on  military terror goods, the hawkish sections are very bold. Probably, a nuclear war from either side can put an end to Indo-Pak conflict?