Mehbooba's hesitation in assuming power
in Jammu Kashmir!
-Dr.
Abdul Ruff
________
Jammu
Kashmir, already troubled, is now without a government for days as the CM
designate Mehbooba Mufti, daughter of former CM Mufti Mohammad Sayeed who
passed away last week, is not showing any inclination to hurriedly assume chief
ministership in Srinagar. She is mourning the death of her father cum political
mentor.
Since
then, the future of the BJP-PDP alliance has been under a cloud with Mehbooba
Mufti maintaining an uneasy silence over the fate of the coalition government.
It is certain that the PDP has lost support and credibility among Kashmiri
Muslims because the party after talking with Congress party which they consider
lesser evil than BJP, eventually opted for the Hindutva BJP with hidden agenda
for the valley. Muslim voters were disappointed with the PDP decision to
popularize BJP in Kashmir valley as well. Kashmiri Muslims are afraid of BJP
saffronizing the valley in step by step manner as it has done in India
mainland.
Within
the PDP as well resistance to PDP-BJP alliance is growing and many MLA want a
change in the. Alliance, moving away from BJP. Apparently, Mehbooba is eager to
assure Kashmiris of safety and security on a permanent basis.
On 8
January, when former chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's funeral procession
passed through his hometown Bijbahera, an unusual sight shocked many of his
followers. But Kashmiris seem to have been angry with their leader Mufti and
others. When the 79-year-old doyen of Kashmir politics died, many had expected
Bijbahera to be completely shut down in deference to the departed leader. But as
the procession inched through to Badshahi Bagh, the ancestral graveyard of the
Mufti's family, some of the shops were open, and in many places it was business
as usual.
The
Kashmiri leader had lost some of his popularity and emotional appeal. This gave
party leaders and MPs Muzaffar Hassan Baig and Tariq Hamid Karra, who have been
critical of the alliance with the BJP, to once again call for a review.
According to sources, the two MPs and a few MLAs pointed out to party chief
Mehbooba Mufti that the PDP is losing support among voters and it would be a
good idea to reconsider the decision.
Since
then, the future of the BJP-PDP alliance has been under a cloud with Mehbooba
Mufti maintaining an uneasy silence over the fate of the coalition government.
The latest impression gained is that the PDP will now review the alliance.
Senior PDP minister Naeem Akhtar said : “We will review the progress on the
agenda of alliance we drafted. It was a common vision of the Prime Minister and
Mufti sahib. We are reviewing how much of it has been achieved.” He said a
decision on the review of the PDP alliance with the BJP rested with Mehbooba
Mufti.
Against
the will of the majority people of Kashmir, the PDP-BJP coalition started on the
high note of return of power projects. But the plan was scuttled when Union
minister of power (state) Piyush Goyal reportedly said the ministry can’t
transfer power projects owned by the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation
(NHPC) to Jammu and Kashmir because of “legal and financial problems."
In
politics, the safest way to predict an outcome is to consider all the
possibilities and then discard the ones that look unviable. So, it would be a
good idea to look at Mehbooba Mufti's options to predict her next move.
BJP
expects Mehbooba break the alliance and call for dissolution of the Assembly,
precipitating a mid-term election. But, that may not happen because her party's
popularity isn't really at the peak it witnessed during the elections in 2014.
And it is unlikely the PDP will repeat its performance and emerge as the
single-largest party or retain the 28 seats it has.
Kashmiri
Muslims expect that Mehbooba to stitch an alliance with the Congress, which has
12 seats in the Assembly. But this will force PDP to look for the support of at
least five MLAs more for a majority in the Assembly. Sources in the PDP say
that at least five MLAs are willing to join the government. These include
Engineer Rashid, Hakeem Yasin, Yusuf Tarigami, Pawan Gupta and an MLA from
Sajjad Lone's party.
Commentators
argue that a Congress-PDP alliance with the support of independent MLAs is a
risky proposition because they can demand too much and walk out of the
coalition any time if the government refuses to oblige them. Hindutva
strategists argue, rather warn that the government would be in a fix if a
hardliner like Rashid Engineer brings in a bill for referendum on independence.
Also, BJP supporters say since the PDP is already struggling for funds from the
Centre in spite of an alliance with the BJP leaving the Hindutva outfit would
not be economically viable because BJP rules the centre and should release
funds.
The BJP
sources say Mehbooba is playing hardball and her decision to leave BJP would
not be in the interests of Kashmir. A government without the BJP as a partner
would definitely be starved of money and support from Delhi. So, a powerless
Congress-PDP government with independent MLAs, therefore, appears risky. That,
according to BJP stalwarts, leaves PDP with just one viable option: Continue
the alliance with the BJP and hope that things get better and the opinion of
the people changes.
The PDP
is keeping its partner BJP on the edge to ensure that it gets Delhi to fulfill
all the promises the BJP had made before finalizing the common minimum program
(CMP) of the alliance. These include a financial package for flood relief and
development, and return of two power projects — 390 MW Dulhasti and 480 MW Uri
I—from NHPC to the State.
As the
PDP toughened its stand on government formation in Jammu Kashmir saying it will
“review the progress of the agenda of alliance”, the Modi government (Centre)
rushed Finance Secretary Ratan P Watal to meet Mehbooba Mufti. The PDP believes
that the coalition government has not followed the “agenda of alliance” drafted
by the two parties. “The agenda has to be implemented,” senior PDP leader and
former education minister Naeem Akhtar. “The power projects have not been
returned, there has been no progress on vacation of land by the Army, on smart
cities, and internal dimension of Kashmir. Jammu and Kashmir is a national
concern, you can’t deal with it so casually,” he said. Sources in PDP said the
party is upset over the last-minute changes to the special package for Jammu
and Kashmir. The Centre, PDP sources claimed, not only reduced the flood relief
and rehabilitation package but also left out Rs 40,000 crore, earmarked for
power projects, from the package. The PDP’s tough talk has rattled the BJP
leadership and Watal was sent to Srinagar.
Another
senior PDP leader said: “We formed an alliance with the BJP in the most
difficult circumstances and reposed trust in the BJP leadership. We feel that
trust has been betrayed. There was clear agreement on the transfer of power
projects in the agenda for alliance but the Centre removed that from the
package. The tunnel on the Mughal road, compensation for land with Central
agencies are other areas.’’ There is also a division within the PDP regarding
the party’s handling of the coalition after Mufti’s death. A section of the
leadership close to the BJP believes that raising such issues before government
formation is “counter-productive”.
The
Modi government and BJP leaders are guarded in their response. State BJP
president Sat Sharma also refused comment until the PDP made its position
official.
Mufti’s
family is in mourning and so Mehbooba is not speaking. .
Perhaps, Mehbooba Mufti now wants the BJP to honour the promise and transfer
these projects to the state. And she wants the assurance of either Prime Minister
Narendra Modi or one of his senior Cabinet colleagues that the CMP would be
implemented in letter and spirit.
The PDP
is known to bargain hard. Mufti Mohammad Sayeed had taken almost two months to
say yes to an alliance with the BJP after the elections had returned a hung
Assembly. But Mehbooba is deeply concerned about the mood of Kashmiris.
Insiders say she is keeping the BJP guessing also to ensure that the terms of
the alliance are not renegotiated and dissenters like Baig and Karra are silenced.
Ambition
is not a bad thing, manipulating masses for one's own end is objectionable.
This norm is applicable to Hindutva parties that seem to destabilize Kashmir
valley by communal coloring - worse than what it is today. BJP is openly
opposed to Indian secular democracy as it is misusing the Hindus as their
trusted vote bank.
The death of JK CM Mufti Mohammad has helped the PDP to gauge the Kashmiri
mood. If Mehbooba takes appropriate steps, that would be good for the party and
Kashmir. Coalition by ignoring the wishes of people would work against the
party and Kashmiri nation and without moral sanction of the voters no
government can survive long.
|