Politics and Polemics: Nepal Scene
Nepal looks set for a new historical phase in its existence as a Himalayan nation, an under-developed country sandwiched between China and India. Ahead of the scheduled first national Assembly meet on 28 May, Nepalese authorities have banned rallies and mass meetings in strategic areas in the Nepalese capital, Kathmandu. The strict prohibition comes into force two days before Nepal's newly-elected assembly is expected to meet to declare the country a republic. The aim is to frustrate protests, rallies and mass meetings planned by political and civil society activists before the vote in the Assembly. Venues covered by the ban include the palace of King Gyanendra, the Crown Prince's house, the hall where the assembly will sit, and the residence of the prime minister.
Despite all this, there is a general belief that a republic will be declared on Wednesday when the assembly first sits. Historic change is approaching in Nepal, but with surprisingly little fanfare. The assembly elected last month is empowered under the constitution to implement a republic, spelling the end of the centuries-old monarchy. But the mechanism has not been determined. Nor has a new government been formed, which many here say will have to happen before any motion on a republic can be drawn up. Up to now there has been no indication of whether King Gyanendra will finally lose his efforts to remain the king or move out of the Royal Palace into one of the other residences, as being proposed by the new emerging dispensation.
As it stands, the top priorities of the Maoists include: To abolish the monarchy and proclaim Nepal as a Republic with a Presidential style of Government; To abrogate all existing unequal agreements (and treaties) with India and re-negotiate those of them, which are considered to be in Nepal's interest; To merge the armed cadres of the Maoists (20,000-strong People's Liberation Army) into the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) which will convert the royalist (Gurkha-dominated) army into a people's army. And to stop the export of Gurkha mercenaries (currently numbering about 45, 000) to the Indian Army's Gurkha Regiments. Obviously, the Maoist leader Prachanda would assume office as the President of Nepal. But a coalition government formation remains the bottle neck for the time being.
New Power Equations
The Maoists had emerged as the largest party in last month's constitutional assembly polls, defying all predictions before the elections, but has been rustling with finding partners for a government formation. The unexpected victory of the Maoist rebels in Nepal's elections has surprised the former rebels themselves, baffled political observers and stunned the international community. The general expectation was that the rebels would trail behind the country's two largest political parties, the Nepali Congress, and the mainstream-left, the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist. But both the parties were left far behind the Maoists who won half the seats chosen by the first-past-the-post system and gained about 30% of the votes for seats given by proportional representation. The polls were to form an assembly to re-write the country's constitution and act as an interim parliament. The "outlawed" Maoists fought a decade-long brutal insurgency which left 13,000 people dead and caused massive damage to the economy before committing themselves to mainstream politics two years ago.
In order to break the political deadlock in Nepal, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist was contemplating joining hands with arch rival Madhesi parties to form a coalition government, after both the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML refused support. Since the Maoists and Madhesi parties have a clear mandate from the people through the Constituent Assembly, they still hope to form the new government. Nepal-Maoist accused the NC and UML of holding on to power under some pretext or the other even after their defeat in the polls. They are making attempts to remain in power against the people's verdict but they are sure to fail," the Maoist leader Bhattarai said. The people would take to the streets if the Maoists are denied a chance to form the government.
The Maoist leader Prachanda, whose labor wing has been solely blamed for leading to the closure of a number of industries, however, has pledged that there will be complete industrial security after Maoists come to power. He appealed to the business community to invest more in commerce and industry. Bhattarai left no stone unturned to woo the business community's support for Maoists and complained that the latter have not yet fully won them over despite sincere efforts.
Nepal and India
The Maoists, elected to head a new government in the Himalayan country plan to scrap the 58-year-old Indo-Nepal Peace and Friendship Treaty and have a fresh pact reflecting new realities. Maoist chairman Prachanda said in Kathmandu on 34 April that they also want to review all other treaties signed between the two neighboring countries. During the poll campaign, the Maoists headed by the 54-year-old former school teacher, Prachanda, had said the treaty was "unequal" which needed to be abrogated, a demand which was also made in the Himalayan nation eight years back. Under the treaty, people living in both countries could freely travel across the border for employment and reside in either place. There is a termination clause in the treaty and Nepal can do away with the pact, which is basically meant to address India's security needs, if it is uncomfortable.
There has been resentment in India over Maoists "take over" in its neighbor Hindu nation and there have been reports about India trying to derail the government by engineering a coup. Bhattarai claimed that the Maoist government to come would further consolidate ties with India for the sake of Nepal's economic development. "India's economy is an ocean and ours is a well," he said adding "India's minor assistance in this context would be a great boost for us."
India, infested with huge weapons arsenals piled up over decades on common men's resources, has been a supplier of weapons and other materials and goods to both Nepal and Bhutan. Obviously, India thinks it has legitimate right to keep Nepal under full control as it has already done with Kashmir.
US Opposes While UN supports
Although the former US president Cater who was among the international observers appreciated the conduct of poll and the outcome, the official USA has said that there was 'no change' in the status of Nepal's Maoists, who currently figure in its list of terrorists despite their recent victory in the Constituent Assembly polls. "I don't think there's any change. There's no change in their status," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said, commenting on May 07 on the issue in the backdrop of a meeting between a top American envoy in Kathmandu Nancy Powell and Maoist leader Prachanda. "There's a particular listing. And I don't have in front of me what exactly what it is, but at this point there's no change," he said. The Communist Party of Nepal- Maoist was added by the United States in its Terrorist Exclusion List in 2004. Since then, America has refused to change its status or remove it from the list. However, the views expressed now are expected to be revised in due course.
However, a firm positive stance taken by the UN chief is significant. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said recently despite last month's landmark Constituent Assembly elections in Nepal, the South Asian nation still have a long way to go in completing the peace process, United Nations. Characterizing the polls as historic, Ban said that "the desire and commitment of the people of Nepal for peace and change was the driving force behind this success." But he warned that "the election is only a milestone in the peace process," noting that "the real work of addressing the nation's deeper socio-economic difficulties and drafting a constitution that reflects the will of the entire nation only begins now." The Secretary-General wrote that he is encouraged by the commitment and cooperation that the Maoists, who performed well at the elections, and called on the other political parties to remain focused on Nepal's long-term interests. "Short-term differences should not distract them from governing by consensus and from cooperating in the vital task of constitution-making," he said. Although Ban noted that he does not anticipate the extension of the mandate of the UN Mission in Nepal, he said the UN is prepared to offer continued support for the conclusion of the peace process and for the country's lasting development. Additionally, both his Special Representative and Resident Coordinator will provide whatever the new government, once formed, may request. "These are critical times for long-term stability in Nepal, and the United Nations will remain by the side of the people and leaders of Nepal in the historic tasks of political and social transformation on which they have embarked."
A Word
Does, then, the UN compensate for the USA's anti-Nepal feelings espoused and supported by Israel? However, more than the USA it is India that Nepalese new leadership should be beware of.
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