US Terror Threat: Iran Plans Security Measures

There has been a brief silence in US-Iran rhetoric and it was hoped both were trying to give peace a final chance and reconcile to the emerging new realities. Many thought that the elections in both countries have helped the leaders to divert their energies now exclusively to poll campaign wits. But USA seems to be busy with its usual strategic designing pursued by Neocons, preparing for a quick war with Iran, which is also preoccupied with facing the superpower eventualities in an equally surprising manner.  

There has been speculation that the US or Israel might stage a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, in response to Iran's refusal to halt the enrichment of uranium, a process which can be used to make fuel for nuclear bombs. The Strait of Hormuz is "by far the world's most important chokepoint," according to the US government's Energy Information Administration. About 20% of oil traded worldwide passes through the narrow waterway.

After Iran has threatened to close the strait in response to a potential military strike over its nuclear activities, Iran has opened new naval facilities east of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow entrance to the Gulf which is key to oil supplies. Naval chief Admiral Habibollah Sayyari was quoted as saying the base in the town of Jask would enable Iran to block the entry of an "enemy" into the Gulf. The base is in the port town of Jask, about 1,050 miles (1,700 kilometres) south of Tehran.

Iran now claims that in the Mideast region Iran is capable of preventing the entry of any kind of enemy into the strategic Persian Gulf if need be. "We are creating a new defense front in the region, thinking of a non-regional enemy," Tehran denies claims by Western powers that it is seeking a nuclear bomb, as speculated by the US-led Western powers trying hard to stop Iran from making bombs in the sphere of nuclear technology.

None can resolve the ambiguity of the Bush administration's position that "all options", including another terror war are on the table regarding Iran. Iran has warned both USA and Iran that any attack would bring consequences, one of which could be an Iranian move to close the Straits of Hormuz, through which oil is transported from the Gulf. The effect on oil prices would be serious.

Iran is under UN sanctions, though UNSC was reluctant to consider third set of sanctions on Iran, with the demand that it suspend the enrichment program, which the West fears may be used for nuclear bombs.

In July President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said Iran now possesses 6,000 centrifuges for enriching uranium - nearly twice the number of only a few months ago and said Iran has the right to process uranium for fuel. West suspects the Iranian president has often exaggerated the program, as a deliberate challenge to the world powers who are trying to restrict Iran's ability to enrich uranium.

Although Iran's latest missile tests have grabbed global headlines, Western observers may have learned little they did not already know about the scope and potential firepower of Tehran's arsenal. The tests were staged in an effort to reinforce the message that Iran was ready to hit back if Israel or the US - or both - launched any kind of military strike on its nuclear facilities. The tests included the flight of an apparently new version of Iran's longest-range missile, the Shahab-3, which authorities suggested would be able to strike targets in Israel.

 Official murmuring of the Bush administration is that Iran is not, openly at least, making highly enriched uranium suitable for a weapon, only low-enriched uranium useable as nuclear power fuel and Tehran has given up its nuclear weapons program in 2003 itself. Pentagon spokesman said last November, that an attack on Iran was not "in the offing". Increasingly, the military option seems to be narrowing to an Israeli option. USA, however, never said it had given up military option in Iran so as to keep Iran and North Korea under threat perceptions.

 The warning in August by the senior US military commander Adm Mike Mullen that an attack on Iran would be "extremely stressful" for US forces must lessen the chances of the US taking part in any strike against Iran. USA considers Israel a part of its protected empire. Pentagon spoke of Israel's vulnerability to "very real threats" So the possibility remains that Israel might undertake an operation against Iran by itself, US could add its military muscle. Recent large-scale Israeli air force exercises have strengthened this possibility.

 Gradually, military opposition to an attack on Iran is bound to weigh heavily on President George W Bush but would not necessarily be the determining factor. Whether President Bush would dissuade Israel from launching its own attack is not known. An Israeli cabinet minister and former chief of staff, Shaul Mofaz, has said that an attack on Iran is "unavoidable" if it "continues with its nuclear program". Israel might act before two "red lines" are reached. The first would be the production by Iran of enough highly-enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb and the second would be its acquisition of a new Russian anti-aircraft system, the S-300. But even given the lack of certainty over a secret program and confusion created by the USA, it is unclear exactly how and when this "red line" might be reached is unclear.

Post Script

Tensions remain high, although many analysts believe an attack has become less likely in recent months. After the show of force by Iran and the harsh rhetoric and the threats, it is a critical moment for diplomacy. It has become fairly clear that Iran has reached the levels Israel had expected as redline long back. Israel is knocking at the White House doors, as usual. As for Washington, time is running out for President George W Bush. The presidential election is just days away and Bush will leave office before the end of January. Some hardliners in the USA talk dangerously about the merits of a "limited war", others have even more ambitious military designs. However, views from US strategists, including Neocons, do indicate that the body of US military opinion is that they have their hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan.