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"Let there arise out of you a band of people inviting to all that is good enjoining what is right and forbidding what is wrong; they are the ones to attain felicity".
(surah Al-Imran,ayat-104)
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User Name: abdulruff
Full Name: Dr.Abdul Ruff Colachal
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USA Wins in Lebanon, but Iran Would be Different

 By Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

 

 

Even as Iranian-backed Hezbollah and its allies were hoping to defeat Lebanon's ruling U.S.-backed coalition in a tightly contested parliamentary election on June 07 that pit the ruling 14 March alliance, which has a small majority in parliament, against its rivals a Hezbollah-led bloc supported by Syria and Iran. Hezbollah fielded only 11 candidates. Turnout was more than 50%. Lebanon’s Christian community enjoying equal representations in government and jobs in the country is accordingly split between the two camps. Voting was reported to have been trouble-free across the country.   The ruling coalition was expected to win 70 or 71 seats in the new assembly, while the Hezbollah alliance would get 58 seats. That would almost exactly replicate the balance which existed in the last parliament. Western analysts campaigning for the US supported ruling alliance said the result could depend on which Christian politicians are elected in a few key constituencies. In effect Lebanon is controlled by Western powers, though the country is waging a war with Israel.

 

Power in Lebanon is divided along sectarian lines. Christians control half of the 128-seat Parliament. The other half is divided among Sunnis, Shiites, Druse and a few other sects. The Lebanese election did little to change the balance of power in a country where Hezbollah is by far the strongest player. Christians, who played a moderating role and have traditionally tilted toward the United States, are not a political force elsewhere in the region. The Lebanon’s governing pro-Western coalition so-called March 14 coalition headed by Saad Hariri got an increased 71 parliamentary seats out of total 128 up for grabs. The opposition Hezbollah alliance, which includes nationalist Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun, landed 57 seats. Hariri's March 14 group made a clean sweep in the large eastern area of Zahle and the Christian districts of Batroun and Koura and Christian parts of Beirut. Seats in fiercely contested Christian district of Metn, northeast of Beirut, were divided between Aoun and his political rival, former president and Phalange leader Amin Gemayel. Aoun also secured all seats in the Christian districts of Jbeil and Kesrouan. Seats in uncontested areas, mainly Hezbollah strongholds and northern Sunni districts, remained unchanged.

 

The 128-seat chamber is divided equally between Muslim and Christian communities, giving each side 64 seats (the proportion of Christians in the overall population is at an estimated 35-40%). The system gives Sunni Muslims 27 seats and Shia' Muslims the same number. The Druze gets eight seats and Alawites two. On the Christian side, 34 seats are reserved for Maronites, 14 for Greek Orthodox, eight for Catholics, six for Armenians and two for other Christian minorities. MPs are elected for four-year terms in 26 multi-seat constituencies. Lebanese men and women above 21 years of age have the right to vote, whether they are resident in Lebanon or not. Even though the voting process itself was expected to be generally fair, some believe unfair tactics are being applied ahead of the election, with newspapers reporting that the major parties were spending hundreds of millions of dollars to buy votes and fly Lebanese home to vote. Jimmy Carter, heading a team of international observers, said he hoped Lebanon's political parties and their foreign backers would accept the results. A tense run-up to elections has been stirred up by a report in Der Spiegel which linked the 2005 assassination of anti-Syrian figurehead Rafik Hariri to Hezbollah.

 

The "March 14" majority coalition, led by Sunni politician Saad al-Hariri, has enjoyed firm backing from the USA and other countries including Saudi Arabia. The current majority in parliament was swept to power in 2005, following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in a car bombing in Beirut. The bombing forced Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon after a 29-year presence amid accusations of Syrian involvement in the attack. The government in Damascus has strongly denied the claims. The alliance struggled to govern in the face of a paralyzing and sometimes violent power struggle with Hezbollah and its allies. It opposes the influence of Syria which dominated Lebanon until 2005. But subsequently, a long political stand-off between the new 14 March ruling coalition and the pro-Syrian opposition over the election of a new president culminated in violent clashes across the country in May 2008. After a long series of unsuccessful talks and outbreaks of violence, the rival parties held reconciliation talks in the Qatari capital, Doha, which resulted in the formation of a national unity government, with the opposition getting 11 out of 27 ministerial posts.

 

The 7 June parliamentary election was watched keenly by the world, as the survival of the Saudi-backed anti-Syrian coalition that also involved the prestige of USA and its new president Obama. The backbone of the current parliamentary majority, the 14 March coalition, is the mainly-Sunni Future movement headed by Saad Hariri, son of the assassinated former PM Rafik Hariri. Hezbollah fielded only 11 candidates, though it is a powerful member of the broader opposition coalition, which includes the maverick Christian leader Michel Aoun, and the mainstream Shia’ movement Amal. As such, Western fears of a Hezbollah "takeover" do not really fit the bill. The USA, which lists Hezbollah as a terrorist group, has linked future aid to Lebanon to the shape and policies of the government that replaces the current national unity cabinet. Hezbollah is part of the present government.  

 

II

 

 Lebanon is a country in Western Asia, on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea. It is bordered by Syria to the north and east, and Israel to the south. Lebanon established a unique political system in 1942, known as confessionalism, based on a community-based power-sharing mechanism. This system is intended to ensure that sectarian conflict is kept at bay and attempts to fairly represent the demographic distribution of the 18 recognized religious groups in the governing body.  One of the most complex and divided countries in the region, Lebanon has been on the fringes, and at times at the heart, of the Middle East conflict surrounding the creation of Israel. Since a resurgence of hostilities in 2006, when Israel launched a major military campaign against the Lebanon-based Shia’ Muslim armed group Hezbollah, the country has struggled to regain the relative stability it enjoyed after the 1975-1990 civil war. One month long 2006 Lebanon War, between the Israeli military and Hezbollah caused significant civilian death and serious damage to Lebanon 's civil infrastructure. The conflict lasted from 12 July 2006 until a cessation of hostilities call, by the UN Security Council, went into effect on 14 August 2006. After some turbulent political times, Lebanon was again able to revive and destabilize its economy and government.

 

The Lebanese election is a tight contest between coalitions at odds over issues including the fate of Hezbollah's powerful guerrilla army and relations with neighboring Syria, which dominated Lebanon until 2005. Much of the election campaigning has focused on Hezbollah's guerrilla wing, which is stronger than the army. Opponents say Hezbollah's weapons undermine the state, while the group and its allies see them as crucial to defending Lebanon against Israel. Tensions in Lebanon have mostly been kept in check by leaders whose rivalries pushed the country to the brink of civil war last year. A thaw in ties between Saudi Arabia and Syria has also helped maintain stability in Lebanon in recent months.

 

Under Lebanon’s power-sharing political system, seats in 128-member parliament are split equally between Christians and Muslims, with further sub-divisions for various sects. Lebanese parliament is 128-seat, divided along sectarian and communal lines - 64 for Muslims and 64 for Christians. Main factions are - 14 March Coalition: Future movement; Progressive Socialist Party; Christian Lebanese Forces; Christian Phalangist party and - 8 March Coalition: Hezbollah; Amal movement headed by the parliamentary Speaker Nabih Birri; Free Patriotic Movement of Gen Michel Aoun. Ruling 14 March Coalition faces a strong challenge from the Hezbollah-led opposition.

 

 

  III

 

A pro-Western bloc with the backing of Saudi Arabia has inflicted a surprise defeat on Hezbollah and its allies on the ballot box in Lebanon. It appears that the masses are shifting their opinion in favor of the moderate coalition as opposed to the hardcore Hezbollah. Hariri-led coalition swept to power in 2005 on a wave of popular anger following the assassination of Rafiq Hariri in a Beirut car bombing.  In the end, though, the American-aligned coalition won 71 seats, while the Syria-Iranian aligned opposition, which includes Hezbollah, took only 57.. Lebanon has always been a critical testing ground that could mark a possibly significant shift in regional dynamics with another major election, in Iran, on Friday. 

 

The new foreign policy orientations of USA appear to be focused now on the poll outcomes in Lebanon and Iran making them pro-USA and the Cairo speech had a significant ingredient for that goal. Obama diplomacy has moving towards a situation where it is no longer relevant for the “extremists” to use the anti-American card and bulk of them would be converted into a bogie of pro-Americans.  President Obama had blunted the appeal of Ahmadinejad’s confrontation with the West. The speech of Obama in Cairo more likely played a role in neutralizing anti-Americanism. Washington is now proposing talking to Hezbollah’s patrons, Iran and Syria, rather than confronting them — a move that undermines the group’s attempt to demonize the United States. The United States is also no longer pressing its allies in the Lebanese government to unilaterally disarm Hezbollah, which, given the party’s considerable remaining clout, could have provoked a crisis.

 

When Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. visited Lebanon in late May, and appeared to threaten withdrawal of financial aid if the opposition won, that was widely derided as a kiss of death. The vice president may have helped by crystallizing for voters their choice: alliance with the United States, France and the regional allies, Egypt and Saudi Arabia; or with Iran and Syria and their allies, Hezbollah and Hamas. The American-backed, Sunni-led coalition appears to have conducted a well-calculated negative campaign, stoking sectarian tensions and fears of Iranian and Syrian dominance. The March 14 coalition, as the Western-backed parties are known, has allowed the United States to control Lebanon and serves as an agent of Israel.

Israel asks world leaders to meet only the Jews in the region and discard Palestine leaders for talks.  Fascist Israel that killed thousands of innocent Palestinians in Palestine said it was "deeply disappointed" by the visit by Russian leader to a leader Khaled Meshal the state terrorist describes as a "terrorist", but Lavrov praised a new level of "realism... and responsibility" in the Hamas leadership. On May 25 Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held talks with the Palestinian elected Hamas group leader-in-exile in Damascus, Khaled Meshal. Sergei Lavrov also spoke after holding talks in Beirut on 25 May with senior Lebanese leaders as well.  His visit comes on the heels of US Vice President Joe Biden, who linked future US aid to Lebanon to the poll outcome. Biden warned against voting for "spoilers of peace", a veiled reference to militant political party Hezbollah.

 

The US-led west has been pushing Christian mindset in Islamic world and Lebanon is a case in point where influence of Christians over state governance is rising. There were many domestic reasons voters handed an American-backed coalition a victory in Lebanese parliamentary elections, in part to President Obama’s campaign of outreach to the Arab and Muslim world could be attributed as a key reason. Most analysts had predicted that the Hezbollah-led coalition, already a crucial power broker in the Lebanese government because of its support from Shiites who make up a large part of Lebanon’s population, would win handily. Evidently the majority of the Lebanese have resolved their minds; they don’t want confrontations, they want peace, albeit temporarily, and they are indeed under US pressure. The Lebanese Parliament will be divided almost exactly as it was, denying the new majority a mandate to govern alone. An upset victory there for the challenger would not fundamentally alter Iran’s priorities, but it would be taken as another step in the moderation of the region. The incumbent president is all set to win there.

 

All lobbyists from state terrorist nations like India and Israel are die hard realists who believe that US president is no saint and they can also be easily brought to fall in line. Instead, it's left to Barack Obama to come to terms with the Bush legacy. Outcome of the Lebanese poll would strengthen their mindset further. The paralysis that has often enveloped Lebanon’s government may continue. The winning factions would have to work with their rivals to form a government and ensure Lebanon is not plunged into a new cycle of political instability and violence. Political stability in Lebanon is direly needed to ensure economic stability and the progress of a war-torn country. One has to watch if the recent victory of moderate forces would shower a ray of hope for the people.

 

The Lebanon outcome is a broad-based coalition unity government. The USA, which had feared a possible Hezbollah-led bloc's victory in Lebanon, is heaving a sigh of relief. However, the result would bring another period of political and inter-factional deadlock which has dominated the last four years.. Iran’s poll outcome can never support a pro-US mindset of the people and Iranians would prefer Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to any pro-US candidate in the fray. In case, Israel quickly announces a decision to allow the establishment of Palestine state according to the Arab peace formula, the incumbent president of Iran himself would consider a shift in his approach to US-Israeli ties and come forward to meet the new Mideast as the new President.  

  -----------------------

Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

Independent Researcher in World Affairs,

The only Indian to have gone through entire India, a fraud and terror nation,
South Asia
.   

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