LONDON (Reuters) - American and Iraqi public health experts have calculated that about 655,000 Iraqis have died as a result of the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion and subsequent violence, far above previous estimates.
Researchers used household interviews rather than body counts to estimate how many more Iraqis had died because of the war than used to die annually in peacetime.
"We estimate that as a consequence of the coalition invasion of March 18, 2003, about 655,000 Iraqis have died above the number that would be expected in a non-conflict situation," said Gilbert Burnham of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in the United States.
That means 2.5 percent of the Iraqi population have died because of the invasion and ensuing strife, he said.
The team's study, published online by the medical journal The Lancet, estimated pre-war deaths in Iraq at 143,000 a year, and said Iraq's death rate is now 2-1/2 times that of the pre-war period.
"Although such death rates might be common in times of war, the combination of a long duration and tens of millions of people affected has made this the deadliest international conflict of the 21st century," Burnham said.
The survey was a follow-up to an earlier study which showed that nearly 100,000 more people than normal died in Iraq between March 2003 and September 2004.
The number of extra Iraqis who have died since March 2003 includes deaths from all causes, including those due to a rise in certain diseases and illnesses, the study said.
Nearly 60 percent of the dead were boys and men aged 15-44 years old. Gunshots were the main cause of violent deaths.
"As we found with our previous survey, the majority of deaths in Iraq are due to violence, although we also saw a small increase in deaths from non-violent causes, such as heart disease, cancer and chronic illness," Burnham said in a statement.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
The figures are based on a survey conducted by researchers from Johns Hopkins and Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad between May and June of 1,849 households including 12,801 household members in 47 randomly selected sites across Iraq.
They questioned the inhabitants about births, deaths, and migrations. The same survey methods were used to measure mortality in other conflict areas such as the Congo, Kosovo and Sudan, according to the researchers.
Deaths were confirmed in 92 percent of cases with a death certificate. In about half of the households which reported a death there was uncertainty about who was responsible.
The death rate in Iraq rose to 13.3 per 1000 people per year, compared with 5.5 per year before the invasion, according to the study.
Other estimates based on think tank figures and media sources calculate the number of extra Iraqi deaths to be much lower. The Iraq Body Count Database calculates that between 43,850 and 48,693 civilian deaths have occurred since the invasion.
"Our total estimate is much higher than other mortality estimates because we used a population-based, active method for collecting mortality information rather than passive methods that depend on counting bodies or tabulated media reports of violent deaths," Burnham explained.
The researchers reiterated their earlier call for an international body to assess the increasing death toll in Iraq.
"With reliable data, those voices that speak out for civilians trapped in conflict might be able to lessen the tragic cost of future wars," Burnham added in the study.
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