Notes from Islamabad

General President Pervez Musharraf has shed both his uniform and presidency. Since he quit without waiting for the parliamentary impeachment, many specialists argued that he was afraid of impeachment and that military refused to support him and hence he did the anti-climax in Pakistan's contemporary politics, thereby leaving a field wide open for further manipulations by the politicians vying for presidency and power. Musharraf announced his decision in a nationally televised public address 11 days after leaders of the two ruling parties said they would proceed with his impeachment. Demands for his resignation became increasingly vocal after Pakistan's four provincial assemblies voted overwhelmingly for his ouster. In the hour-long address, Musharraf struck a defiant and emotional tone, saying that opponents had opted for the politics of confrontation over reconciliation. He said he would step down in the interest of maintaining stability in Pakistan. "I am leaving with the satisfaction that whatever I could do for this country I did it with integrity," Musharraf said.

Both PPP Chief Asif Ali Zardari and Pakistan premier PML-N leader Sharif hailed the exit of Musharraf as people's victory. Politicians began marathon meetings about possible replacements for Musharraf, with early reports suggesting a woman might be chosen. As word of the resignation spread, Musharraf's opponents celebrated with cakes in some places, gunfire in others. In Islamabad, the capital, news of Musharraf's departure was greeted with jubilation. People flocked to sweets shops in the city's popular Jinnah Supermarket to buy cakes and pastries to celebrate. A 32-year-old homemaker, as if she knows about that said: "It's the dawn of democracy" Leaders of the ruling Pakistan People's Party and Pakistan Muslim League-N party hailed the resignation. "This is a victory for democratic forces," neo-democrats argued. 

It was effectively rumored around the world, particularly in India, likely that Musharraf, who took power in a 1999 military coup, would soon leave the country, possibly to live in the Persian Gulf emirate of Dubai. He negotiated immunity from civil and criminal prosecution for events during his rule, assurances that smoothed his resignation. 

  TWO: New Horizon?

Former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's resignation on Aug. 18 signaled the beginning of a new round of political uncertainty as the country's civilian government tries to reshape the legacy of nearly nine years of military rule. The parties, which defeated Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League-Q faction in national parliamentary elections in February, have pledged to elect a new president as quickly as possible. Coalition government leaders met in Islamabad to discuss the next steps and potential candidates for the post. Now the stage is set fr the presidential poll on September 6 to choose a successor to Pervez Musharraf.

Leading contenders for the presidency are from the PPP, which won a majority of seats in Parliament in the February elections. Zardari became frontrunner for the presidency despite having previously denied any ambitions for the post made vacant when Musharraf stepped down in the face of looming impeachment charges. The PML-N has fielded former Chief Justice Saeed-uz-Zaman Siddiqui against Zardari in the presidential polls. Zardari had apologised to Sharif himself for hurting his feelings and hinted that certain powers within and outside Pakistan, which had played a role in the ouster of Musharraf, were opposed to the restoration of the deposed judges. Making fresh efforts to win back the estranged ally, PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari requested PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif to rejoin Pakistan's ruling coalition but the former premier said it is not possible in the "near future", but Sharif rebuffed the presidential contender.

Both economy and security became subject of concern. Financial markets rebounded.  With the country's economy at an all-time low and a radical Islamist insurgency based in the country's tribal areas gaining in strength, the civilian coalition faces challenges that will not be easily or quickly sorted out. Musharraf's resignation and the race to replace him come amid a prolonged battle with Islamic "militants who have carried out suicide bombings and fighting on the Afghan border of nuclear-armed Pakistan.

After Musharraf's departure, the coalition began to collapse. The fragile coalition government comprising the PPP, now led by Zardari, and the party of another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, is at loggerheads over how to reinstate dozens of judges sacked by Musharraf last year. Nawaz Sharif and former Nawaz Sharif has said that he had allied with Zardari to steer the country of the crisis (read dictatorship) and added that the latter had betrayed him by not reinstating the dismissed judges. Some of the PML-N leaders wanted the party to quit the ruling coalition and sit on the Opposition benches. They wanted the party to stay away from the presidential election, but a final decision in this regard would be made in a meeting of the party's Central Working Committee in Islamabad on 25 August. Political instability and a nose-diving economy have alarmed Western nations looking for continuity after the departure of Musharraf, a key US ally, but talks between the PPP and Sharif's party have so far failed to make headway. Finally, the PML-N chief split from the ruling coalition after accusing Zardari of reneging on several agreements to reinstate dozens of judges deposed by former President Pervez Musharraf during last year's emergency rule.

Finally, the PML-N chief split from the ruling coalition after accusing Zardari of reneging on several agreements to reinstate dozens of judges deposed by former President Pervez Musharraf during last year's emergency rule. The PML-N has fielded former Chief Justice Saeed-uz-Zaman Siddiqui against Zardari in the presidential polls. Zardari had apologised to Sharif himself for hurting his feelings and hinted that certain powers within and outside Pakistan, which had played a role in the ouster of Musharraf, were opposed to the restoration of the deposed judges. Making fresh efforts to win back the estranged ally, PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari requested PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif to rejoin Pakistan's ruling coalition but the former premier said it is not possible in the "near future", but Sharif rebuffed the presidential contender.

The former premier-who was ousted by Musharraf in a 1999 coup-had said representatives of the two parties would draft a resolution on restoring the judges over the weekend and then introduce it in parliament. Sharif gave a deadline and the fate of the 60 judges, including the chief justice, has become a political sticking point with crucial repercussions for the coalition, but Zardari reinstated a few of them to keep his ally  in the coalition, but Sharif  stuck to guns firmly, having previously threatened to quit the coalition . Critics have suggested that Zardari is against the return of crusading chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry because he could overturn an amnesty on corruption charges that allowed Benazir Bhutto and Zardari to return to Pakistan.
 

Meanwhile, Sharif said after a meeting with PPP stalwarts in the eastern city of Lahore that he would back Zardari's presidential bid if he does away with the presidential power to dissolve parliament, created by Musharraf.Bhutto was killed in a suicide attack at an election campaign rally in December and the parties in the current ruling coalition defeated Musharraf's allies in polls held in February. Meanwhile many Pakistani Muslims have been killed. Zardari has moved in to the PM's lodging.

THREE:  FOUR: Why Musharraf resigned gracefully? 

 Yes, this is the most critical question and every one of the Pakistan specialist has failed to address one most important issue. The Kashmir turmoil!. The historical cultural, political and economic bonds between Kashmiris and Pakistanis require n elucidation and substantiation when both Pakistanis and Kashmiris fought together against hegemonic Indians twice. India knows Kashmiris long for Pakistan and they hate Indians. They don't consider themselves Indians even after about 60 of terrorist and diplomatic efforts to make them feel Indians. Terror no where works on a permanent basis and it did not work for India either; in fact it went against Indian designs.

 The embattled Musharraf angered his countrymen by siding with the United States and killing Muslims in the country. Even the Lal Mosque tragedy occurred at the behest of both USA and perhaps China since Chinese women were involved in the incident. But Musharraf, though killing Muslims regularly, "disappointed" Washington by failing to be tougher with al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan's lawless northwest border region. A few Americans also say it was Musharraf's dictator-like actions that eventually unraveled his nearly decade-long rule. Bruce Riedel, a senior adviser to three presidents on Middle East and South Asian affairs said: "In the end, he also became the man who couldn't deliver. Bush was very slow to realize that he either had been had by Musharraf or that Musharraf was not up to the task. Historians will debate this for years."

Kashmir is backbone of contention between occupier India and Pakistan wanting to resurrect Kashmir to make it a large Kashmir nation to exist independent of both. Over the last couple of years, Indian media in India and Kashmir spread the rumors that Musharraf, a basic Delhiite, was siding with Indian on Kashmir and was diluting the freedom movement of patriotic Kashmiris. It was done in a sustained manner by Indian propaganda masters to split Pakistan and Kashmir. Indian media's role has been disastrous even for Indian Muslims, let alone Kashmiris. Innocent Kashmiris have been awfully confused about Pakistan's policy in Kashmir. Coupled with US-led terror war in Pakistan, people of Pakistan have been disgusted with pro-India over tunes of Musharrf's administration. 

Musharraf's exit, facilitated by an immunity agreement, appeared to augur a new rapport between the country's newly elected civilian government and the powerful military. The fact remains that Musharraf's diplomacy was to help reduce tension between the two countries through cross border trade and cultural exchanges, but India has its own agenda of retaining Kashmir under its brutal control and for which it wants Pakistan's approval and support. Hence Musharraf's diplomacy remained weak and India only shamelessly talked about "cross-border-terrorism", while killing Kashmiri Muslims systematically.

The political crisis in Pakistan has much to with Kashmir issue. The leaders of Pakistan think without Musharraf and military interference they can help Kashmiris regain their sovereignty stolen by India. In fact the freedom fighting Kashmiris have even welcomed the resignation of Musharraf. In fact, Musharraf was s not afraid of appeasement and he said he would face it do the needful accordingly. But he was only gauging the mood of the politicians and he realized that there were not many enthusiasts among the members of Parliament and Assemblies to support him and he would lose the case. Politicians were not interested in compromises and chose confrontation. The outcome of being impeached could have been even more disastrous for Pakistan since a weak president cannot keep the nation together, he knew. In stead of causing further turmoil, Musharraf gave in. 

He pledged support for democratic reforms in Pakistan, but before he could complete his mission he is forced out.

FOUR:  Presidential poll

Factually speaking, he would not have even dreamt of it even during Benazir's time, but Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, looks all set to win the September 6 vote by legislators for a replacement for Pervez Musharraf. Pakistan's presidential election next week will be a three-way tussle between the country's main parties after the Election Commission on Saturday issued a final list of candidates. Zardari's main rival for president looks likely to be Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui, a former chief justice nominated by the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Mushahid Hussain Sayed, a former government minister and top official of the main pro-Musharraf party, is the third candidate. Sayed said that Zardari should withdraw as a candidate because of questions about his mental health and past corruption charges, none of which were ever proved. The call coincided with reports some party colleagues were urging Zardari to drop out, although party spokesmen dismissed that speculation. Saturday was the final day for candidates to withdraw their nominations and Zardari remained on the list. If another sign were needed that Zardari has his eye firmly set on the presidency, his sister, Faryal Talpur, a PPP member of parliament, withdrew her candidacy. Talpur had been what is known as a "covering candidate" for Zardari in the election. Members of the country's four provincial assemblies and two houses of the national parliament will elect the president.

Investors, their confidence shattered by political upheaval and militant violence, are hoping the presidential election will bring an end to uncertainty and usher in more stable politics. Pakistan's stock market, which rose for six consecutive years to 2007 and was one of the best-performing markets in Asia in that period, has fallen about 36 percent this year. The rupee has lost about a quarter of its value against the dollar this year.

  FIVE: Pakistan-USA Relations- Focus on Musharraf

Musharraf resigned on 18 August to avoid any melting situation that would endanger the nation more severely than now and further complicate the life of ordinary Pakistanis. It is said he resigned because of a messianic drive and avoid any new turmoil and less on account of an impeachment by the Pakistan People's Party-led ruling coalition.

US-Pakistan relations are time-tested and they are not go to change with the change of leadership in Islamabad. The US ambassador to Pakistan, Anne W. Patterson, has regular contact with the government of Pakistan and has had a number of meetings with the leaders and he said: 'We have ongoing cooperation with the government of Pakistan, and we will continue to'. But as far as the resignation of Musharraf, not too long ago regarded by the USA as indispensable, Washington said it is a matter for Pakistanis' internal political process for them.

US President George W Bush called his 'personal friend' former President Pervez Musharraf to wish him well and thanked him for his efforts in Pakistan's transition to democracy. Bush also thanked him for his help in the war against terror. It is not evident if Musharraf would be brought back in some other capacity. Bush and Musharraf, who has had plenty of knowledge about the US struck up a workable friendship. Despite their rapport, theirs was an alliance of convenience. It wasn't a personal relationship, but Musharraf tried to play it, effectively, for domestic advantage.

President Bush on August 22 reassured Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani of the US administration's continued support for the democratic government in Pakistan in the wake of former President Pervez Musharraf's resignation. Gilani thanked Bush for the delivery of F-16s to Pakistan and release of 116 million dollars to finance the mid-lifeupgrade of Pakistan's ageing fleet of F-16 fighters. Gilani also thanked Bush for authorizing the delivery of 20 P-37 trainer jets to Pakistan. During a telephone call to Gilani, Bush inquired about the upcoming presidential election to choose Musharraf's successor. Bush also asked Gilani as to when the government was bringing about a balance between the Presidency and Parliament. Premier Gilani thanked Bush for his continuous support for strengthening democracy in Pakistan and said the people and government are grateful for the promotion of "democratic" norms by the US administration. Bush told Gilani that both governments have strong ties and assured the Prime Minister that his administration will continue supporting the democratic government of Pakistan.

Running for president, George W. Bush couldn't name the new leader of Pakistan. A month after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, Musharraf was standing with the now-President Bush at the Waldorf-Astoria in New York, declaring Pakistan's unwavering support to fight with the United States against "terrorism in all its forms wherever it exists." Most of the time since Sept 11, General Musharraf was feted in Washington and hailed as a 'statesman' and sought more genocide in Pakistan of Muslims.

The US threatened to bomb Pakistan back to the Stone Age if Islamabad didn't allow Washington to take command of its military forces and bases, and wage war on Taleban. Musharraf confirmed this threat in his autobiography. The little general gave in with unseemly haste. He quickly rented the Pakistani Army and ISI to the US for $1.1 billion in official annual payments. Musharraf ruled as both army chief and Washington 's chief planner in Pakistan . Musharraf sent his soldiers and intelligence agents to fight pro-Taleban Pashtun tribesmen along Pakistan 's northwestern frontier, and allowed the US to use Pakistan airbases and supply depots. Without these bases, the US and its NATO allies could not have waged war in Afghanistan . Thousands of Pakistani civilians, most of them Pashtun tribesmen, were killed by Musharraf's armed forces. All this he did to appease the US strategists, who always used the"terrorism" plank to further threaten him. The domestic pressure was also used by USA to push Musharraf to make never ending compromises. As a result, an Islamic Pakistan became a weak anti-Muslim state killing Muslims and handing over many to the anti-Islamic US terror forces.

After the Sept. 11 attacks, Pervez Musharraf became a crucial but ultimately frustrating ally in the war against Islamic extremists. Bush and Musharraf got along from the start. Bush needed help catching and killing Muslim "terrorists", and he wooed Musharraf because the general had a reputation as someone who would bring stability to Pakistan. Musharraf curried Bush's favor to earn support from the ruling class in Pakistan that believed their nation's path was determined by "Allah, the Army - and America.  Over time, Bush and Musharraf each suffered politically from their friendship. Bush was accused of looking the other way when Musharraf didn't play by the rules of "democratic" nations. "We pretty much played the Musharraf card - ad nauseam - eventually to Pakistan's detriment," said Rick Barton, a Pakistan expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The Pakistani leader's alliance earned him the unfriendly nickname of "Mush," which rhymes with "Bush." But some Pakistanis claim it was Musharraf's relationship with Washington that was to blame for many of the country's problems, including the rising tide of extremist attacks within Pakistan.

USA has failed in Afghanistan so is Musharraf in Pakistan, but both killed Muslims. The "democracy" wave ignited by the US media in Pakistan and the opposition in Pakistan made Musharraf's life more difficult and he became increasingly unable to strengthen the county's security and economic status. In November 2007, Musharraf declared a state of emergency in Pakistan, suspended the constitution and dismissed independent-minded judges as the Supreme Court was set to rule on the legality of his October 2007 election - a ballot that was boycotted by the opposition. Even then Bush's confidence in Musharraf did not crack. But with his resignation, it is becoming business as usual in gamut of US-Pakistan relations. 

Musharraf lost his ground because of USA. When he first overthrew the then prime minister Nawaz Sharif, Musharraf had some popularity. US-led terror war stood against his popularity over time. Over 80 per cent of Pakistanis came to detest Musharraf, even branding him a "traitor" and American agent for selling out his nation's national interests in Afghanistan and Kashmir. Musharraf was accused of handing over up to 1,000 Pakistanis to CIA, all of whom have vanished.

One does not know if Musharraf resigned on the advice of the Bush administration. Speculative exercise over the future of US-Pakistan ties would not reward any useful insights into that domain immediately. It is not clear now if the US was involved in any discussion about bringing Musharraf back in some other form. And the departure of a man who closely allied himself with the USA in anti-terrorism operations opens the question of how his successor will work with Washington and confront the growing insurgency within Pakistan's borders. 

A Note

With the president gone and a new incumbent in the name of Zardari has been found to occupy the highest seat of Pakistan's power, now the chair of premier would be the focus of the politician. It is quite certain Sharif is not at all interested in becoming the premier again, at least under the present circumstances and so Gilani has no reason to feel any threat to his position. For Indian strategists, Gilani should leave and let Sharif or any body else should become the premier there. Why?  Very simple! Indians are touched about certain omens and signs. Kashmir has remained the most important problem for New Delhi and Geelani is seen as "trouble-shooter" Indian fanatics and anti-Muslim media, afraid of his power, funnily call him "poison and snake" , India wants to see Gilani out of the scene as well. If Pakistani Gilani is out, Kashmir's Geelani also would be forced to leave the scene by a proxy war and the Kashmir freedom fighting struggle should not find any quick resolution, that way.

Days ahead are very crucial for Pakistan's future course of growth and development.

-----------------------

Thank you
Yours Sincerely,
DR.ABDUL RUFF Colachal
Researcher in International Affairs,
South Asia