Will USA Survive to Face the Afghan Music

By Sohail Parwaz

Who would know it on 18 March 1979, when the Soviet PM Alexei Kosygin and the Afghan President Noor Muhammad Taraki were having a telephonic conversation, where the latter was desperately begging for any sort of assistance come what may, that the fate of Afghanistan would be no different even in September 2009, with lots of changes in the chairs and with the surges and streams passing under the bridges. So soon this all happened! Astonishingly just within a decade. It wasn’t known to the world even at that time, however after another decade in 1999 the smart Americans definitely knew the ultimate fate of the world since they achieved what they craved for in the first phase and the second phase titled, ‘War on Terror’ was to begin now.

There is a branded research NGO by the name of ‘National Security Archive’ – located at the George Washington University in Washington DC – claims to be an independent non-governmental research institute & library which ‘doesn’t receive any US government funding’ however its budget is supported by publication royalties and donations from ‘foundations’ and ‘individuals’.

About three years back this American Security Archive had published a pile of declassified documents alleging Pakistan to be the Taliban’s godfather. The papers are related to a period of seven years leading up to 9/11. That means it’s a 1994 onwards era? The beauty of the American ‘think tanks’ is that they act obstinately while proffering any logic may that appeal or not. In past, at a number of occasions, I tried to draw my readers’ attention towards the Russians saga and still maintain that Russia has not truly conceded the new Central Asian Republics (CARs). At the moment, Russia is weak and unstable to exert any serious influence on the CARs but who knows when the time takes an abrupt turn? As I wrote sometime back in one of my articles that if one thing was in the US’s favour in the times gone by, why can’t it be in Russia’s favour in the near future? If the US does not take much time in branding their one time friends (Afghans) as foes today then who would stop the sons of the soil from joining hands with their one time enemy Russia again? Especially when both the powers have a lot in the common like their geographical entity, the civil wars that both the superpowers fought over the time, their notorious intelligence agencies who share identical functions and powers vis-à-vis their operational domain.

As I was mentioning about those declassified secret papers, hence I would like to restrict myself to the US’s hypocrisy and dual standards which isn’t a new thing for anyone. Mostly these documents are without reference to the context as in many cases the preceding and succeeding paragraphs or sentences are brushed black. Barbara Elias is the lady who labored to arrange the jigsaw pieces of these ‘puzzling’ documents and gave them the title, ‘Pakistan – The Taliban’s godfather?’ The whole stress has been put on the blame that ever since 1994, the Taliban were directly funded, armed and advised by Islamabad itself. However after the hectic efforts a specific charge sheet, basing on at least four assertions, has been framed (so late! Or may be so soon?) against Pakistan; first that Islamabad provided direct aid and military support to the Taliban, including the use of Pakistani troops to train and fight alongside the Taliban inside Afghanistan, second that Islamabad made a firm commitment to the Taliban for their victory in Afghanistan, third that use of so-called Taliban terrorists training areas in Afghanistan by Pakistani-supported militants in Kashmir as well as Pakistan’s covert efforts to supply Pushtun troops form its tribal regions to the Taliban cause in Afghanistan and fourth that Harkat-ul-Ansar a Kashmiri militant group which was directly funded by the government of Pakistan was sharing the terrorists training camps with Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan.

When I was reviewing these documents it reminded me of the US’ warmth, all out support and bolstering the Mujahidin and Taliban prior to 1989. Not that the Americans have forgotten their support rather they have forgotten their one time ally which the US would usually do after attaining their goals. Barbara might have forgotten but I would like to draw her and other American policy makers’ attention towards a former Congressman Charles Wilson’s saying, who was an avid supporter of US assistance to the Mujahideen, quoted in the daily Telegraph, 14 January 1985 that, “There were 58,000 (US) dead in Vietnam and we owe the Russians one. I thought the Soviets ought to get a dose of it”. Brig. (Retd) Muhammad Yousaf describes this in his book, ‘The Bear Trap’ and writes that Wilson in fact personified the attitude of many American officials who were of the opinion that Afghanistan must be made into a Soviet Vietnam (which they couldn’t do themselves unfortunately). This notion was similarly prevalent among the CIA officers including their Director William Casey. The writer’s opinion about General Akhtar Abdul Rehman is on the record, who had somewhat very cold and formal relations with the Americans and many a times he told the author that he didn’t trust the US to continue to support the Jehad wholeheartedly if the Soviets withdrew.

How quickly the Americans change their face is quite evident from these recently released documents, especially the Document 7 which is quoted here:

“Document 7 – State 291940
U.S. Department of State, Cable, “Discussing Afghan Policy with the Pakistanis,” December 22, 1995, Confidential, 11 pp.
[Excised]

Unfortunately a strong U.S.-Pakistan relationship has led “Tehran, Moscow and New Delhi [to] assume incorrectly that the U.S. is party to Pakistan’s support for the Taliban and shares its antipathy for Rabbani and Masood…. Pakistani policy has undermined the credibility of our U.S. support of the U.N. special mission.”

The tide was turning against Taliban and the bad days were ought to come since they weren’t required anymore by the US hence the reason was sufficient for the US to turn against them. Probably Barbra over looked (or intentionally skipped) the Document 21 which in my humble opinion is the voice of the heart. It’s the expunged extract of the U.S. Embassy Islamabad’s cable, through which the Assistant Secretary Robin Raphel was informed on March 10, 1997 and which reads, “The Embassy recommends a policy of “limited engagement to try to “moderate and modernize” the Taliban.” Full engagement would be against American interests as it would associate Washington with a “movement we find repugnant,” however a failure to engage the Taliban at all would further isolate Afghanistan”. There is yet another document which confirms that the mid 1998 Taliban military victories were in no way the result of Pakistani troop participation in Taliban battles as it was claimed (and blamed) by the members of the Northern Alliance.

Interestingly the US crusades’ time line is very mystifying. While having a look at it we find that 1969 was marked for the American humiliation in Vietnam and the Russians were indirectly the winners. This victory coddled the Russians so they developed an ache for their century old desire to reach Indian Ocean in 1979, exactly a decade later. The US not having the guts enough to face them used the Pakistan and Mujahideen’s shoulders and made the Russians lick the dust in Afghanistan in 1989, which was again a decade later. Now it was the US’ turn to get pampered who couldn’t sustain Taliban’s capture of Mazar-i-Sharif hence got an embargo imposed through the UN congealed Taliban assets in an attempt to force them to hand over bin Laden for trial. Surprisingly that was in 1999. I am afraid that the time line very evidently now suggests a humiliation on the horizon for the Americans now in 2009 (and it my take a couple of years to get materialized).

There are lots of predictions about the dismemberment of the USA by 2010 in line. Recent American econo-tsunami is just the first lose brick in the wall. I wonder if the Americans are seriously ready for it but whatever the case is one thing is for sure that the writing on the wall is imminent. Ironically the US won’t find any supporting shoulder now at least among the immediate neighbours to the Russians and I am keeping my fingers crossed eager to see the history of 1969 being repeated in the coming years and for which the countdown has already started in 2009.