INDIA'S DEFENCE PREPARATIONS

A J Malik

India's Central Budget for 2009-2010 (April 1, 2009 to March 31, 2,010) includes defence outlay of US$32 billion. The break-up of the outlay is $10 billion for payroll, $10 billion for current operational costs $2 billion for research and $10 billion for capital expenditure.

Some sources contend that the actual outlay is US$ 40 billion or even higher.  Their assessment is based on the fact that the defence allocations exclude outlay allocated to defence-sector undertaking (under India's defence ministry.  Likewise, the expenditure on nuclear production and space projects

is not shown under defence-budget head of account.

The accounting jugglery enables India to conceal enormous expenditure on naval dockyards, defence-related machine tools and electronic industry, border and strategic road, and para-military forces. Several quasi-defence provisions are concealed under allocations made to civil ministries.  The purpose of concealment is to deflate actual defence outlay as a proportion of the country's GNP.

In view of the trend perpetuated by past budgets, the government could enlarge the budgeted outlay in a revised budget under pretext of threats from China and Pakistan.  In India's history, there are few examples of non-productive defence outlays being slashed to stash out greater outlay for social sector programmes , particularly those  aiming at alleviation of poverty in rural area. It is a rude shock to the Indian poor that millions of its people continue to live under the poverty line (about $1 a day) while defence budget is routinely hiked each year.

The whopping outlay of $ 40 billion gives clue to Indian mind.  Its claim of being committed to improving lot of the common man is mere lip service India's engagement in peace talks with Pakistan is a hoax.  India expects another conventional war with Pakistan.  This is obvious from enormous money being spent by India on conventional arms_ IAF purchase of 126 Mirage jets (France), , 66 Hawk trainer fighter jets (UK), besides "Eye in the Sky" early warning system (Phalcon). Indian Navy wish list: six French submarines, nuclear submarines, long-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft, She wants to equip her navy with and nuclear warheads., besides Russian aircraft-carrier Admiral Gorshkov.  The carrier will cost retrofit charges of $670m and $1bn as cost of 18 to 20 MiG29 fighters.  The Navy purchases also include. 

The army is negotiating purchase of 1,200 to 1,500 howitzers guns ($3bn) with South Africa, Israel and Sweden. Her army is digging NBC-attack-protected tunnels in forward areas along the unresolved borders with Pakistan and China, as a bulwark against counterstrikes by the adversaries. The last-mentioned event should be an eye-opener for India's neighbours.  Obviously, India is preparing for NBC warfare. An added advantage of the tunnels would be incapacitation of hostile satellite observation of troops' positions to  gauge force levels in forward areas. Tunnels would also be used to establish command and control centres to direct operations during times of war. Even helicopters could be positioned in subterranean tunnels to launch surprise attacks, or undertake reconnaissance missions (while concealing its  own troops' concentration).

It is significant to note that the idea of constructing tunnels in border areas was mooted by the Udhampur-based Northern Command. This operational command is responsible for guarding the Line of Control with Pakistan and the Line of Actual Control with China in the western sector, as also undertaking counter-insurgency operations in occupied Kashmir.

Over the past three years, India had spent over $10.5 billion on military imports, making it amongst the largest arms importers in the developing world. India's military imports are expected to reach $30 billion by 2012. But, Pakistan's meagre resources do no allow it to match its next-door neighbour in defence expenditure.

Pakistan is not in a position to enhance its conventional war capability pari passu with India's preparations. As such, possibility of a nuclear conflagration has increased.