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"Let there arise out of you a band of people inviting to all that is good enjoining what is right and forbidding what is wrong; they are the ones to attain felicity".
(surah Al-Imran,ayat-104)
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User Name: webmaster
Full Name: webmaster
User since: 1/Jan/2007
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Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5
Scenario 6
Scenario 7

Religious groups: Indian-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Kashmir Valley
-
4%
95%
-
Jammu
-
66%
30%
4%
Ladakh
50%
-
46%
3%
Religious groups: Pakistani-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Northern Areas
-
-
99%
-
Azad Jammu and Kashmir
-
-
99%
-
Source: Indian/Pakistani Government Censuses
Scenario one: The status quo

Kashmir has been a flashpoint between India and Pakistan for more than 50 years. Currently a boundary - the Line of Control - divides the region in two, with one part administered by India and one by Pakistan. India would like to formalise this status quo and make it the accepted international boundary. But Pakistan and Kashmiri activists reject this plan because they both want greater control over the region.

In 1947-8 India and Pakistan fought their first war over Jammu and Kashmir. Under United Nations' supervision, they agreed to a ceasefire along a line which left one-third of the state - comprising what Pakistan calls Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and the Northern Areas administered by Pakistan and two-thirds, Jammu, Ladakh and the Kashmir Valley, administered by India.

In 1972, under the terms of the Simla agreement, the ceasefire line was renamed the Line of Control.

Although India claims that the entire state is part of India, it has been prepared to accept the Line of Control as the international border, with some possible modifications. Both the US and the UK have also favoured turning the Line of Control into an internationally-recognised frontier.

But Pakistan has consistently refused to accept the Line of Control as the border since the predominantly Muslim Kashmir Valley would remain as part of India. Formalising the status quo also does not take account of the aspirations of those Kashmiris who have been fighting since 1989 for independence for the whole or part of the state.

Religious groups: Indian-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Kashmir Valley
-
4%
95%
-
Jammu
-
66%
30%
4%
Ladakh
50%
-
46%
3%
Religious groups: Pakistani-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Northern Areas
-
-
99%
-
Azad Jammu and Kashmir
-
-
99%
-
Source: Indian/Pakistani Government Censuses
Scenario two: Kashmir joins Pakistan

Pakistan has consistently favoured this as the best solution to the dispute. In view of the state's majority Muslim population, it believes that it would vote to become part of Pakistan. However a single plebiscite held in a region which comprises peoples that are culturally, religiously and ethnically diverse, would create disaffected minorities. The Hindus of Jammu, and the Buddhists of Ladakh have never shown any desire to join Pakistan and would protest at the outcome.

In 1947 India and Pakistan agreed that the allegiance of the state of Jammu and Kashmir would be decided by a plebiscite. Had the majority voted in favour of Pakistan, the whole state would have become part of Pakistan. This no longer seems to be an option.

A plebiscite offering the choice of union with Pakistan or India also does not take into account the movement for independence which has been supported by political and militant activists since 1989. India has long since rejected the idea of a plebiscite as a means of settling the Kashmir issue.

Instead the government argues that the people have exercised their right of self-determination by participating in elections within the state.

However the demand for a plebiscite to be held, as recommended by the Governor-General of India, Lord Mountbatten in 1947, and endorsed by the United Nations Security Council, is still considered by some as a way of letting Kashmiris exercise their right of self-determination.






Religious groups: Indian-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Kashmir Valley
-
4%
95%
-
Jammu
-
66%
30%
4%
Ladakh
50%
-
46%
3%
Religious groups: Pakistani-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Northern Areas
-
-
99%
-
Azad Jammu and Kashmir
-
-
99%
-
Source: Indian/Pakistani Government Censuses
Scenario three: Kashmir joins India

Such a solution would be unlikely to bring stability to the region as the Muslim inhabitants of Pakistani-administered Jammu and Kashmir, including the Northern Areas, have never shown any desire to become part of India.

In 1947, the Maharajah of Jammu and Kashmir agreed to the state becoming part of India. India and Pakistan then agreed to hold a plebiscite to confirm which country Kashmir's citizens wanted to join. The Indian Government believed that the majority population, under the charismatic leadership of Sheikh Abdullah, would vote to join India, with its secular constitution, rather than Muslim Pakistan.

If the plebiscite had been held and the majority had voted in favour of India, Pakistan would have had to relinquish control of the Northern Areas and the narrow strip of Jammu and Kashmir which it occupied militarily in 1947-8.

India has long since rejected the idea of holding a single plebiscite as a means of determining the fate of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. It believes that the people made their choice by participating in elections within the state.

Without including a third option of independence from both India and Pakistan, the plebiscite also fails to satisfy the demands of those Kashmiris wanting full independence.

 

Religious groups: Indian-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Kashmir Valley
-
4%
95%
-
Jammu
-
66%
30%
4%
Ladakh
50%
-
46%
3%
Religious groups: Pakistani-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Northern Areas
-
-
99%
-
Azad Jammu and Kashmir
-
-
99%
-
Source: Indian/Pakistani Government Censuses
Scenario four: Independent Kashmir

The difficulty of adopting this as a potential solution is that it requires India and Pakistan to give up territory, which they are not willing to do. Any plebiscite or referendum likely to result in a majority vote for independence would therefore probably be opposed by both India and Pakistan. It would also be rejected by the inhabitants of the state who are content with their status as part of the countries to which they already owe allegiance.

An independent Jammu and Kashmir might also set in motion the demand for independence by other states in both India and Pakistan and lead to a "Balkanisation" of the region.

In the 1960s, following discussions between India and Pakistan over Jammu and Kashmir, a group of Kashmiris demanded that the entire state should become independent as it was prior to the Maharajah's accession to India in 1947.

The movement for independence of the entire state is mainly supported by Kashmiris who inhabit the more populous Kashmir Valley and who would like both India and Pakistan to vacate the areas they are occupying. They base their claim on the fact that the state was formerly an independent princely state, is geographically larger than at least 68 countries of the United Nations, and more populous than 90.

This movement is not supported by India or Pakistan, both of which would lose territory. And in view of the likely regional instability, an independent Kashmir is not supported by the international community either.






Religious groups: Indian-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Kashmir Valley
-
4%
95%
-
Jammu
-
66%
30%
4%
Ladakh
50%
-
46%
3%
Religious groups: Pakistani-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Northern Areas
-
-
99%
-
Azad Jammu and Kashmir
-
-
99%
-
Source: Indian/Pakistani Government Censuses
Scenario five: A smaller independent Kashmir

An independent Kashmir could be created from the Kashmir Valley - currently under Indian administration - and the narrow strip of land which Pakistan calls Azad Jammu and Kashmir. This would leave the strategically important regions of the Northern Areas and Ladakh, bordering China, under the control of Pakistan and India respectively. However both India and Pakistan would be unlikely to enter into discussions which would have this scenario as a possible outcome.

If, as the result of a regional plebiscite, which offered the option of independence, the majority of the inhabitants of the Kashmir Valley chose independence and the majority of the inhabitants of Pakistani-administered Jammu and Kashmir, (excluding the Northern Areas) also chose independence, a smaller, independent Kashmir could be created by administratively joining these two areas together.

This would leave the predominantly Muslim Northern Areas as part of Pakistan and Buddhist Ladakh and majority Hindu Jammu as part of India, with the possibility that some Muslim districts of Jammu might also opt to join the independent state.

Although Pakistan has demanded a change in the status of the Kashmir Valley, it depends on water from the Mangla Reservoir in Pakistani-administered Jammu and Kashmir and would be unlikely to permit loss of control of the region.

India is still committed to retaining the Kashmir Valley as part of the Indian Union and has refused to consider holding a plebiscite in any part of the state.

Regardless of the aspirations of the inhabitants, to date neither country has contemplated a situation where the end result would adversely affect their own interests.

Religious groups: Indian-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Kashmir Valley
-
4%
95%
-
Jammu
-
66%
30%
4%
Ladakh
50%
-
46%
3%
Religious groups: Pakistani-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Northern Areas
-
-
99%
-
Azad Jammu and Kashmir
-
-
99%
-
Source: Indian/Pakistani Government Censuses
Scenario six: Independent Kashmir Valley

An independent Kashmir Valley has been considered by some as the best solution because it would address the grievances of those who have been fighting against the Indian Government since the insurgency began in 1989. But critics say that, without external assistance, the region would not be economically viable.

The movement for independence in the Kashmir Valley gained momentum in the late 1980s when Kashmiris protested against their continuing allegiance to the Indian Union. In the present day, if a regional plebiscite offered independence as an option, it is possible that the majority of Kashmiris would vote in favour of independence.

With an approximate land mass of 1,800 square miles (80 miles long, 20 to 25 miles wide) it is much larger than Monaco and Liechtenstein "“ but only one-tenth of the size of Bhutan. Whether or not the rest of the state retained its current political affiliations, many Kashmiris therefore believe that the valley could be viable in its own right.

In terms of livelihood, the valley could sustain itself through tourism, handicrafts and agriculture.

But an independent Kashmir Valley would also need to retain good relations with its neighbours in order to survive economically. Not only is the region landlocked, but it is snowbound during winter.

An independent Kashmir Valley would have the advantage of giving neither Pakistan nor India a victory out of their longstanding dispute. But although Pakistan might favour the creation of an independent Kashmir Valley, India would be unlikely to agree to the loss of territory involved.

Autonomy of the same region under the Indian Union is also an option; Pakistan is more likely to request a 'joint protectorate' in order to share in safeguarding the Kashmir valley's political integrity and economic development.






Religious groups: Indian-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Kashmir Valley
-
4%
95%
-
Jammu
-
66%
30%
4%
Ladakh
50%
-
46%
3%
Religious groups: Pakistani-administered Kashmir
REGION
Buddhist
Hindu
Muslim
Other
Northern Areas
-
-
99%
-
Azad Jammu and Kashmir
-
-
99%
-
Source: Indian/Pakistani Government Censuses
Scenario seven: The Chenab formula

This plan, first suggested in the 1960s, would see Kashmir divided along the line of the River Chenab. This would give the vast majority of land to Pakistan and, as such, a clear victory in its longstanding dispute with India. The entire valley with its Muslim majority population would be brought within Pakistan's borders, as well as the majority Muslim areas of Jammu.

With the inclusion of Ladakh, which also lies north of the Chenab river, India would be left with approximately 3,000 square miles of territory out of 84,000 square miles.

This solution would require the voluntary agreement of India to give up territory which it wants to retain. It is impossible to see what benefit India could derive from the transfer of so much land, and why the government - or the inhabitants of the region who are not contesting their status - would ever agree to such a solution.

It also does not take into account the movement for independence which has been extremely vocal ever since the insurgency began in the 1980s, and whose supporters have been demanding independence of all or part of the state.

 Reply:   my article regarding Kashmir S
Replied by(wasis) Replied on (25/Oct/2006)
Kashmir Solution

The Peace in the South Asia   

By Wasi Siddiqui

 

The recent train blasts in the Mumbai, India claims 186 innocent lives and leaving many injured, it is indeed a crime which is highly condemnable. Those involved in this kind of terrorist acts must be brought to justice, because this is unacceptable, no matter whose life it is, it is a loss of human life.

 

This act of terrorism is not a new occurrence to both India and Pakistan, in fact Pakistan has been a real victim of terrorism, since it gain independence in 1947, both countries are bitterly divided over the issue of Kashmir, which is the burning issue and both country claims it to be the part of its territory. Pakistan has denied it's involvement in the blast, but this blame game continues to go on and on.

 

The Kashmir conflict was born when India annex the part of Kashmir and declare as it integral part of India, and Pakistan refuses to accept this action, thus created big tension in the region. The truth is that issue of Kashmir was never decided at the time of independence which indeed was a big mistake and unfortunate thing to have happened.

 

 The issue of Kashmir led to the formation of so many freedom fighters groups who were ready to fight with India to gain independence of Kashmir, many people lost their lives in this fight and even after 58 years of independence of India and Pakistan the issue of disputed territory of Kashmir remains unsolved. These freedom fighters in the 70's and 80's were at their peak when Russia invaded Afghanistan; many of this freedom fighter was involved in cross-border fighting against Russia. These groups still remains active and armed and also brought many terrorist acts inside Pakistan in the name of Shia and Sunni conflict which resulted in worst bloodshed ever seen in Pakistan.

 

Even thought Pakistan says it has controlled and has managed to stop this acts of cross-border terrorist activities, it seems there are some elements who don't want to see peace prevailing in the region.

 

There was a slight of hope was born when than Prime Minister of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited Pakistan in1997 to start a new peace process between the two countries and remove the mistrust issue which is the main cause of problem. Although he said very openly that "The division of India and Pakistan is a still a fresh wound". But then he visited Minar-e-Pakistan to accept the reality, where Pakistan's as a separate homeland resolution was passed.

 

But the relation between India and Pakistan turned for the worst, when the ugly conflict of Kargil took place, and brought these two countries back on the war zone, as history has witness two wars of 1965 and 1971, where East Pakistan becomes Independence state of Bangladesh. It was a indeed a biggest defeat for Pakistan and brought a shameful note to all Pakistanis.

 

 

Another issue of Saichen is a long running dispute of these countries where so many soldiers from both countries has died , it is a estimation that more soldiers died as a result of severe cold condition then actually in a combat , this continues to be a big problem as India occupied a portion and another under Pakistan control. I wrote a poem which I would like to share called "A view from Saichen"

 

A VIEW FROM SAICHEN

At the most highest level of the world
Where the mountains are all covered with snow
Where the quietness of the mountain often breaks
Every time when gunfire sounds that echo through
Two of the fierce Army sitting on top
Waiting for the just one word " GO"
Every movement is being watched by each other
Any single step could bring a disaster that one can know
Pakistani and Indian troops exchange heavy gunfire
The division that started many years ago
Pakistan and India deeply divided on Kashmir
Which is the main issue that continues to grow
In the most coldest area of the world
The Kashmir issue is still burning deep down below
Is the issue of Kashmir will ever be solved?
Is PEACE will ever making its way between the foes?

Wasi Siddiqui   Copy right (2006)

 

 

 

In the present condition where both India and Pakistan has Nuclear weapons, this has brought them on a serious collision situation and any misunderstanding can bring disaster to the whole region.

 

It is in the best interest for both countries to settle the issue of Kashmir with some bold steps which can bring ever-lasting peace in south Asia. It is good that Pakistan always ready to initiate the peace process despite the Kargil conflict, it is time to forget and forgive and move forward in search for peace. It is time for both nations to think about poverty and rising social issue in their countries , It is famous saying of former Indian Prime Minister Mr.Vajpayee who said " India and Pakistan is the not the enemy of each other , but it is poverty which is the enemy of both countries".

 

 

 

 

I wrote a poem regarding the Kashmir issue which is called "Across the Border" for which I received a letter from United Nation Secretary General as my poem reflects the theme of Peace of the organization.

 

Across the Border

Pakistan and India has something in common
Our blood is same our language is same
Our history has given us nothing but pain
So many times we went to war!! What a shame
It is time to put our past behind
And move forward with the PEACE as our only aim
Whenever there is a tragedy happens
Both country starts war of blame
Lack of understanding is the biggest hurdle
In 57 years of existence TRUST has never came
It is time to solve the issue of Kashmir
Which both country has always claim
It is time to sacrifice for an ever-lasting peace
Give independence to Kashmir
Let's walk away from the border
And feel proud of ourselves for a better deal

Wasi Siddiqui (Copy right 2006)

 

 

I met one of the Indian colleague and asked why India don't want to give independence to Kashmir and he said that "if India even think about independence of Kashmir then India afraid that it will led to more ethnic groups within India asking for Independence such as sikhs who want to create Khalistan, and then moist rebels who also want a independence in Assam" and these issues will led to total disintegration of India, which any Indian cannot think of.  His concern as Indian is also correct, as nobody wants its country to break apart.

 

The South Asia already witness the bloodiest separation of India and Pakistan , the biggest migration in the history of the world , leaving thousand displace, missing , and wounds of losing love ones still lingers in the heart and minds of the people. We cannot afford to see another war in the region. Our leaders must work hard in finding the Kashmiri solution without triggering any sort of provocation which escalates to war.

 

 

 

It is a suggestion for solving the issue of Kashmir which is as follows:

 

1-     Abolish the LOC (Line of Control).

2-     India should declare disputed Kashmir which is the control of India as a whole India.( Optional)

3-     Pakistan should declare dispute territory of Azad Kashmir as its part of land.( Optional)

4-     Or Kashmir should be declared as a city in both countries as East Kashmir and West Kashmir.

5-     Make highways and roads to connect the Kashmir where people can live in a peaceful way and set up businesses and trade.

6-     Dismantle all the nuclear weapons and reduce the army.

7-     Funds should be available to spend on development of the undeveloped areas and fight poverty.

8-     Water and health issue should be a top priority in the agenda.

9-     Declared international border instead of LOC.

10- Efforts should be made to have electricity and basic needs available to people on the both sides.

11- The war concept between the two countries will end automatically.

12- There should be joint efforts between India and Pakistan to eradicate poverty from the region.

13- Indian and Pakistani nationals should visit each other country as often to hold culture value exchange programs.

14- Issue such as HIV/AIDS should be deal as priority as well.

15- The trust must be restored and blaming game must end.

16- Pakistan must take steps to stop cross border attacks.

17- India must withdrawal all its troops from occupied Kashmir.

18-  Businesses should be set-up in city of Kashmir in both countries which can bring prosperity to all the people and improve the living standard and create jobs.

19- Identify those elements that often cause this acts of terrorism and eliminate those individuals and groups.

20- Set up a monetary institution which will concentrate on Lending funds and loans to youth to establish businesses.

21- Any country that violates the agreement of Peace must be punished by United Nations with tougher economic sanction.

 

 

It is a sincere hope that Peace can still be achieved with some positive move and which our generation will be very thankful to our leaders for their bold steps in bringing prosperity and ever-lasting peace in the region. It is always said that leaders should be a model for our new generations who can inspire them to work in a positive way instead of hate and war. We can make this South Asia a model for the rest of the world by walking away from the war zone to Peace initiatives. Let's bring joy and give Peace a chance to prevail in South Asia.

 

 


 
 Reply:   Musharaf who is literally one
Replied by(webmaster) Replied on (23/Oct/2006)
Musharaf who is literally one of the most indian oriented leaders to unfortunately become pakistans ruler has gone to the extent of telling the indians that he would accept anything
Musharaf who is literally one of the most indian oriented leaders to unfortunately become pakistans ruler has gone to the extent of telling the indians that he would accept anything that they could negotiate with the kashmiris
... however india has failed to convince the occupied
kashmiris and refused even to withdraw armed forces from the streets of occupied kashmir...liberalis ation in travel, transport and future trade is not going tobe of any help unless pakistan literally subjugates itself to india
...the indians are sticking to their point of view that cultural links would kill pakistans position on kashmir...however despite musharaf recently suggesting that he had made headway...indicatio ns of indian hawkishness emerged again and even the army indicated that the indians might be inclined to some adventurism again...
musharaf is fast losing credibility in pakistan on a personal level and many are suggesting that the actual power maybe in the hands of general ehsanul haq or a troika of armed forces
chiefs....
ehsanul haq a musharf crony has done much to consolidate musharaf's power but the pakistan army might be reaching teh conclusion that musharaf solves nothing...neither kashmir nor democracy... ehsanul haq a musharaf crony is one of the few remnants of teh coups early days.......
many are suggesting that musharaf has packed the top positions in the army with personal loyalists and a coup might be unlikely however even the opposition now regards the
civilan facade as dummies and idiots...many suggest that the army will have to takecare of musharaf before any semblance of democratic norms can return...

Ikram Ul Haq

 
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